How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
App State — the basics
144 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 33-33 | 50% | +2.0 | n=66 |
| vs South Alabama | 2-4 | 33% | -8.3 | n=6 |
| in a conference game | 43-51 | 46% | +0.9 | n=94 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 62-67 | 48% | +1.3 | n=129 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 59-69 | 46% | +1.4 | n=128 |
| vs the Sun Belt | 43-52 | 45% | +0.8 | n=95 |
| in November | 23-20 | 53% | +3.8 | n=43 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 25-37 | 40% | -2.4 | n=62 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
App State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -7.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 144 graded games: +1.2 pts vs their number per game | n=144 |
| App State has failed to cover 2 straight | n=2 |
App State — combinations
19 lean App State · 68 lean against
Read this first. 113 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in November | 13-10 | 57%from 50% | +4.3 | n=23 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-6 | 40%from 57% | +0.7 | n=10 |
| in a conference game + in November | 22-20 | 52%from 46% | +3.6 | n=42 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 52% | +3.6 | n=20 |
| vs a G5 opponent + in November | 22-20 | 52%from 46% | +3.6 | n=42 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 52% | +3.6 | n=20 |
| vs the Sun Belt + in November | 22-20 | 52%from 45% | +3.6 | n=42 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 52% | +3.6 | n=20 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in November | 21-20 | 51%from 48% | +3.7 | n=41 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 51% | +3.6 | n=20 |
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 32-32 | 50%from 50% | +2.1 | n=64 |
| + in November | 12-10 | 55%from 50% | +4.2 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-6 | 40%from 55% | +0.7 | n=10 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 25-27 | 48%from 50% | +1.9 | n=52 |
| + in November | 11-10 | 52%from 48% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 21-25 | 46%from 48% | +1.4 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-15 | 35%from 48% | -4.9 | n=23 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 21-25 | 46%from 50% | +1.4 | n=46 |
| + in November | 11-10 | 52%from 46% | +3.9 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-14 | 33%from 46% | -4.6 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 11-16 | 41%from 50% | -3.8 | n=27 |
| in November + in the last 5 seasons | 10-10 | 50%from 53% | +3.6 | n=20 |
| on the road + vs a G5 opponent | 26-28 | 48%from 50% | +1.8 | n=54 |
| + in November | 12-10 | 55%from 48% | +4.0 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-6 | 40%from 55% | +0.7 | n=10 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 22-26 | 46%from 48% | +1.4 | n=48 |
| + in November | 12-10 | 55%from 46% | +4.0 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-14 | 33%from 46% | -4.6 | n=21 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-15 | 35%from 48% | -4.9 | n=23 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.