Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

ST Model Arkansas State -6.6
Trends · 2026 week 4
How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Kennesaw State — the basics
29 graded games since 2014
on the road7-944%-1.5n=16
out of conference5-838%-3.5n=13
vs an FBS opponent15-1158%+1.4n=26
vs a G5 opponent14-1254%+0.1n=26
in September2-722%-6.3n=9
in the last 5 seasons15-1452%+0.1n=29
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Kennesaw State — form & streaks
Last 12 games: +1.0 pts vs their number per gamen=12
All 29 graded games: +0.1 pts vs their number per gamen=29
Kennesaw State — combinations
10 lean Kennesaw State · 19 lean against
Read this first. 41 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
CombinationRec%PtsSample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent14-961%from 58%+1.7n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons14-961%from 61%+1.7n=23
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons15-1158%from 58%+1.4n=26
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons14-1254%from 54%+0.1n=26
out of conference + vs an FBS opponent5-550%from 38%-0.9n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent4-357%from 50%-1.1n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons4-357%from 57%-1.1n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons5-550%from 50%-0.9n=10
+ in September1-420%from 50%-4.3n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons1-420%from 20%-4.3n=5
on the road + out of conference4-450%from 44%-0.4n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent3-260%from 50%-0.2n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons3-260%from 60%-0.2n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent4-357%from 50%+2.9n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons4-357%from 57%+2.9n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons4-450%from 50%-0.4n=8
on the road + vs an FBS opponent7-847%from 44%-0.1n=15
+ vs a G5 opponent6-650%from 47%+0.1n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons6-650%from 50%+0.1n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons7-847%from 47%-0.1n=15
on the road + vs a G5 opponent6-746%from 44%-1.7n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons6-746%from 46%-1.7n=13
on the road + in the last 5 seasons7-944%from 44%-1.5n=16
out of conference + vs a G5 opponent4-640%from 38%-4.3n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons4-640%from 40%-4.3n=10
+ in September1-517%from 40%-6.3n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons1-517%from 17%-6.3n=6
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.