Arkansas State at Louisiana—

ST Model Louisiana -3.9

Trends · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Arkansas State — the basics

147 graded games since 2014

on the road	40-30	57%	-0.3	n=70
vs Louisiana	5-6	45%	+1.4	n=11
in a conference game	56-38	60%	+2.1	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	74-62	54%	+0.5	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	73-56	57%	+1.5	n=129
vs the Sun Belt	56-38	60%	+2.1	n=94
in October	24-19	56%	-0.1	n=43
at this venue	1-4	20%	-9.3	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	34-27	56%	-0.1	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Arkansas State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 147 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=147
Arkansas State has covered 2 straight	n=2

Arkansas State — combinations

64 lean Arkansas State · 104 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 63%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 77% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in a conference game	29-17	63%from 57%	+1.6	n=46
+ vs a G5 opponent	29-17	63%from 63%	+1.6	n=46
+ vs the Sun Belt	29-17	63%from 63%	+1.6	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 63%	-1.9	n=20
+ in October	8-9	47%from 63%	-3.7	n=17
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 63%	-9.3	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	29-17	63%from 63%	+1.6	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 63%	-1.9	n=20
+ in October	8-9	47%from 63%	-3.7	n=17
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 63%	-9.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	28-17	62%from 63%	+1.6	n=45
+ vs a G5 opponent	28-17	62%from 62%	+1.6	n=45
+ vs the Sun Belt	28-17	62%from 62%	+1.6	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 62%	-1.9	n=20
+ in October	8-9	47%from 62%	-3.7	n=17
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 62%	-9.3	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 63%	-1.9	n=20
+ in October	8-9	47%from 63%	-3.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 47%	-5.6	n=9
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 63%	-9.3	n=5
on the road + vs the Sun Belt	29-17	63%from 57%	+1.6	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 63%	-1.9	n=20
+ in October	8-9	47%from 63%	-3.7	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-5	44%from 47%	-5.6	n=9
+ at this venue	1-4	20%from 63%	-9.3	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Louisiana — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

at home	29-29	50%	-0.1	n=58
vs Arkansas State	6-5	55%	-1.4	n=11
in a conference game	45-41	52%	+0.9	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	60-61	50%	+0.4	n=121
vs a G5 opponent	60-58	51%	+0.3	n=118
vs the Sun Belt	45-41	52%	+0.9	n=86
in October	18-14	56%	+1.8	n=32
at this venue	29-29	50%	-0.1	n=58
in the last 5 seasons	33-32	51%	+0.8	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisiana — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=132
Louisiana has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Louisiana — combinations

166 lean Louisiana · 27 lean against

Read this first. 226 combinations shown. The best one here is 80%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs Arkansas State	4-1	80%from 50%	+9.3	n=5
+ in a conference game	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
+ at this venue	4-1	80%from 80%	+9.3	n=5
vs Arkansas State + at this venue	4-1	80%from 55%	+9.3	n=5
vs Arkansas State + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	-0.4	n=5
in October + in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 56%	+4.3	n=17
vs a G5 opponent + in October	18-14	56%from 51%	+1.8	n=32
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-7	59%from 56%	+4.3	n=17
+ at this venue	7-6	54%from 56%	+2.5	n=13
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 54%	+9.1	n=7
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	23-18	56%from 52%	+1.9	n=41
vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons	23-18	56%from 52%	+1.9	n=41

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.