How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Liberty — the basics
104 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 25-24 | 51% | +1.1 | n=49 |
| out of conference | 43-33 | 57% | +1.5 | n=76 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 50-45 | 53% | +0.9 | n=95 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 38-33 | 54% | +0.8 | n=71 |
| vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| in September | 19-14 | 58% | +3.9 | n=33 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 28-36 | 44% | -2.7 | n=64 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Liberty — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -4.2 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 104 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game | n=104 |
| Liberty has failed to cover 4 straight | n=4 |
Liberty — combinations
50 lean Liberty · 16 lean against
Read this first. 89 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| out of conference + vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67%from 57% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 67% | -6.3 | n=8 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 67% | -2.7 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67%from 53% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 67% | -6.3 | n=8 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 67% | -2.7 | n=5 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67%from 54% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 67% | -6.3 | n=8 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 67% | -2.7 | n=5 |
| out of conference + vs a G5 opponent | 28-18 | 61%from 57% | +2.1 | n=46 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67%from 61% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 67% | -6.3 | n=8 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 67% | -2.7 | n=5 |
| + in September | 13-9 | 59%from 61% | +3.8 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-4 | 67%from 59% | +1.0 | n=12 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-11 | 56%from 61% | -1.9 | n=25 |
| out of conference + in September | 17-11 | 61%from 57% | +4.9 | n=28 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 9-5 | 64%from 61% | +1.3 | n=14 |
| out of conference + vs an FBS opponent | 39-28 | 58%from 57% | +2.3 | n=67 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67%from 58% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 67% | -6.3 | n=8 |
| + in September | 2-3 | 40%from 67% | -2.7 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 24-13 | 65%from 58% | +3.8 | n=37 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 10-5 | 67%from 65% | +1.0 | n=15 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 13-8 | 62%from 65% | -0.1 | n=21 |
| + in September | 11-9 | 55%from 65% | +3.4 | n=20 |
| + in September | 15-11 | 58%from 58% | +4.7 | n=26 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 8-5 | 62%from 58% | +1.0 | n=13 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 16-16 | 50%from 58% | -1.8 | n=32 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.