Georgia Southern at Georgia State—

ST Model Georgia Southern -6.8

Trends · 2026 week 11

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Georgia Southern — the basics

150 graded games since 2014

on the road	33-40	45%	-1.8	n=73
vs Georgia State	6-5	55%	+2.4	n=11
in a conference game	49-45	52%	+0.9	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	72-64	53%	+1.2	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	67-58	54%	+1.2	n=125
vs the Sun Belt	50-45	53%	+1.0	n=95
in November	23-22	51%	+0.7	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	33-30	52%	-0.6	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Georgia Southern — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 150 graded games: +1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=150
Georgia Southern has covered 2 straight	n=2

Georgia Southern — combinations

58 lean Georgia Southern · 60 lean against

Read this first. 135 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 70% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Georgia State + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons	22-18	55%from 53%	+0.1	n=40
vs Georgia State + in a conference game	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
vs Georgia State + vs an FBS opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
vs Georgia State + vs a G5 opponent	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5
vs Georgia State + vs the Sun Belt	6-5	55%from 55%	+2.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+8.5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Georgia State — the basics

130 graded games since 2014

at home	23-39	37%	-5.5	n=62
vs Georgia Southern	5-6	45%	-2.4	n=11
in a conference game	44-45	49%	-1.8	n=89
vs an FBS opponent	63-60	51%	-0.2	n=123
vs a G5 opponent	54-58	48%	-1.3	n=112
vs the Sun Belt	44-45	49%	-1.8	n=89
in November	19-24	44%	-2.4	n=43
at this venue	17-29	37%	-5.7	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	27-33	45%	-1.8	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Georgia State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 130 graded games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=130

Georgia State — combinations

18 lean Georgia State · 171 lean against

Read this first. 199 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 65% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
at home + vs Georgia Southern	3-2	60%from 37%	-5.0	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	-5.0	n=5
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	44-43	51%from 49%	-1.3	n=87
+ vs a G5 opponent	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ vs the Sun Belt	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ vs the Sun Belt	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 44%	-0.4	n=19
+ at this venue	3-11	21%from 44%	-9.1	n=14
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-14	30%from 36%	-7.4	n=20

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.