Georgia Southern at Troy—

ST Model Troy -4.8

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Georgia Southern — the basics

150 graded games since 2014

on the road	33-40	45%	-1.8	n=73
vs Troy	6-3	67%	+6.1	n=9
in a conference game	49-45	52%	+0.9	n=94
vs an FBS opponent	72-64	53%	+1.2	n=136
vs a G5 opponent	67-58	54%	+1.2	n=125
vs the Sun Belt	50-45	53%	+1.0	n=95
in November	23-22	51%	+0.7	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	33-30	52%	-0.6	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Georgia Southern — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -2.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 150 graded games: +1.1 pts vs their number per game	n=150
Georgia Southern has covered 2 straight	n=2

Georgia Southern — combinations

47 lean Georgia Southern · 60 lean against

Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 67%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Troy + in a conference game	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
vs Troy + vs an FBS opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
vs Troy + vs a G5 opponent	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
vs Troy + vs the Sun Belt	6-3	67%from 67%	+6.1	n=9
+ in November	2-3	40%from 67%	-3.0	n=5
vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons	22-18	55%from 53%	+0.1	n=40

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Troy — the basics

145 graded games since 2014

at home	31-39	44%	-2.1	n=70
vs Georgia Southern	3-6	33%	-6.1	n=9
in a conference game	54-39	58%	+1.1	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	71-58	55%	+0.6	n=129
vs a G5 opponent	68-56	55%	+0.5	n=124
vs the Sun Belt	55-39	59%	+1.1	n=94
in November	23-20	53%	-1.3	n=43
at this venue	30-39	43%	-2.3	n=69
in the last 5 seasons	38-28	58%	+1.6	n=66

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Troy — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 145 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=145

Troy — combinations

143 lean Troy · 30 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 65%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 69% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons	28-15	65%from 59%	+2.4	n=43
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	27-15	64%from 58%	+2.3	n=42
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 53%	-0.8	n=20
vs Georgia Southern + in November	3-2	60%from 33%	+3.0	n=5
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	34-23	60%from 55%	+1.9	n=57
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	36-25	59%from 55%	+1.7	n=61
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Sun Belt	53-37	59%from 55%	+1.2	n=90
+ in the last 5 seasons	28-15	65%from 59%	+2.4	n=43
+ in November	22-16	58%from 59%	-1.0	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 58%	-0.5	n=19
+ at this venue	12-8	60%from 58%	-0.7	n=20
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 59%	-0.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-9	59%from 55%	+1.8	n=22
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Sun Belt	55-39	59%from 55%	+1.1	n=94
+ in the last 5 seasons	28-15	65%from 59%	+2.4	n=43
+ in November	23-17	57%from 59%	-0.8	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 57%	-0.5	n=19
+ at this venue	12-9	57%from 57%	-1.4	n=21
+ at this venue	24-22	52%from 59%	-0.8	n=46
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-9	59%from 52%	+1.8	n=22
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	52-37	58%from 58%	+1.2	n=89
+ in the last 5 seasons	27-15	64%from 58%	+2.3	n=42
+ vs a G5 opponent	52-37	58%from 58%	+1.2	n=89
+ in the last 5 seasons	27-15	64%from 58%	+2.3	n=42
+ vs the Sun Belt	52-37	58%from 58%	+1.2	n=89
+ in November	22-16	58%from 58%	-1.0	n=38
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 58%	-0.1	n=44
+ vs the Sun Belt	52-37	58%from 58%	+1.2	n=89
+ in the last 5 seasons	27-15	64%from 58%	+2.3	n=42
+ in November	22-16	58%from 58%	-1.0	n=38
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 58%	-0.1	n=44
+ in November	22-16	58%from 58%	-1.0	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-7	63%from 58%	-0.5	n=19
+ at this venue	12-8	60%from 58%	-0.7	n=20
+ at this venue	24-20	55%from 58%	-0.1	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-9	59%from 55%	+1.8	n=22

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.