Louisiana at Georgia State—

ST Model Louisiana -2.8

Trends · 2026 week 13

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Louisiana — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

on the road	35-29	55%	+1.6	n=64
in a conference game	45-41	52%	+0.9	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	60-61	50%	+0.4	n=121
vs a G5 opponent	60-58	51%	+0.3	n=118
vs the Sun Belt	45-41	52%	+0.9	n=86
in November	23-18	56%	+3.9	n=41
in the last 5 seasons	33-32	51%	+0.8	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisiana — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=132
Louisiana has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Louisiana — combinations

88 lean Louisiana · 1 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 86%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + in November	13-8	62%from 55%	+4.9	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-2	78%from 62%	+6.7	n=9
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 56%	+4.0	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-17	57%from 50%	+4.4	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 57%	+4.0	n=20
in a conference game + in November	21-16	57%from 52%	+3.5	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 57%	+3.1	n=18
vs a G5 opponent + in November	21-16	57%from 51%	+3.5	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 57%	+3.1	n=18
vs the Sun Belt + in November	21-16	57%from 52%	+3.5	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 57%	+3.1	n=18
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	30-23	57%from 55%	+1.4	n=53
+ in November	11-6	65%from 57%	+4.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 65%	+5.0	n=7
+ vs the Sun Belt	25-20	56%from 57%	+1.2	n=45
+ in November	11-6	65%from 56%	+4.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 56%	+0.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-11	54%from 57%	+0.6	n=24
in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons	23-18	56%from 52%	+1.9	n=41
vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons	23-18	56%from 52%	+1.9	n=41
on the road + in a conference game	25-20	56%from 55%	+1.2	n=45
+ in November	11-6	65%from 56%	+4.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-1	86%from 65%	+5.0	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	25-20	56%from 56%	+1.2	n=45
+ in November	11-6	65%from 56%	+4.5	n=17
+ vs the Sun Belt	25-20	56%from 56%	+1.2	n=45
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 56%	+0.6	n=20
+ vs the Sun Belt	25-20	56%from 56%	+1.2	n=45
+ in November	11-6	65%from 56%	+4.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 56%	+0.6	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 56%	+0.6	n=20
+ vs an FBS opponent	24-20	55%from 56%	+0.9	n=44
+ in November	11-6	65%from 55%	+4.5	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-9	55%from 55%	+0.6	n=20
+ vs a G5 opponent	24-20	55%from 55%	+0.9	n=44
+ vs the Sun Belt	24-20	55%from 55%	+0.9	n=44

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Georgia State — the basics

130 graded games since 2014

at home	23-39	37%	-5.5	n=62
in a conference game	44-45	49%	-1.8	n=89
vs an FBS opponent	63-60	51%	-0.2	n=123
vs a G5 opponent	54-58	48%	-1.3	n=112
vs the Sun Belt	44-45	49%	-1.8	n=89
in November	19-24	44%	-2.4	n=43
at this venue	17-29	37%	-5.7	n=46
in the last 5 seasons	27-33	45%	-1.8	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Georgia State — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -6.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 130 graded games: -0.8 pts vs their number per game	n=130

Georgia State — combinations

7 lean Georgia State · 146 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 51%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 61% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	44-43	51%from 49%	-1.3	n=87
+ vs a G5 opponent	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ vs the Sun Belt	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ vs the Sun Belt	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 44%	-0.4	n=19
+ at this venue	3-11	21%from 44%	-9.1	n=14
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-14	30%from 36%	-7.4	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Sun Belt	44-43	51%from 51%	-1.3	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 44%	-0.4	n=19
+ at this venue	3-11	21%from 44%	-9.1	n=14
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-14	30%from 36%	-7.4	n=20
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	53-52	50%from 51%	-0.6	n=105
+ vs the Sun Belt	44-43	51%from 50%	-1.3	n=87
+ in the last 5 seasons	19-21	48%from 51%	-1.8	n=40
+ in November	18-23	44%from 51%	-2.5	n=41
+ at this venue	12-21	36%from 51%	-5.8	n=33
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-23	50%from 50%	-0.7	n=46
+ in November	18-23	44%from 50%	-2.5	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 44%	-0.4	n=19
+ at this venue	3-11	21%from 44%	-9.1	n=14
+ at this venue	14-23	38%from 50%	-5.2	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-16	30%from 38%	-7.4	n=23

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.