James Madison at Southern Miss—

ST Model James Madison -11

Trends · 2026 week 10

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

James Madison — the basics

56 graded games since 2014

on the road	19-10	66%	+4.3	n=29
in a conference game	19-13	59%	+4.9	n=32
vs an FBS opponent	32-20	62%	+5.1	n=52
vs a G5 opponent	29-17	63%	+5.6	n=46
vs the Sun Belt	19-14	58%	+4.5	n=33
in November	9-6	60%	+8.0	n=15
in the last 5 seasons	31-20	61%	+4.7	n=51

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

James Madison — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +7.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 56 graded games: +4.4 pts vs their number per game	n=56

James Madison — combinations

91 lean James Madison · 0 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 71%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
on the road + vs a G5 opponent	15-6	71%from 66%	+6.4	n=21
+ in November	5-2	71%from 71%	+12.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-2	71%from 71%	+12.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 71%	+5.2	n=19
+ vs the Sun Belt	10-6	63%from 71%	+4.4	n=16
+ in November	5-2	71%from 63%	+12.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 63%	+4.4	n=16
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	16-8	67%from 66%	+4.7	n=24
in a conference game + in November	8-4	67%from 59%	+11.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 67%	+11.3	n=12
vs a G5 opponent + in November	8-4	67%from 63%	+11.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 67%	+11.3	n=12
vs the Sun Belt + in November	8-4	67%from 58%	+11.3	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-4	67%from 67%	+11.3	n=12
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	19-10	66%from 66%	+4.3	n=29
+ vs a G5 opponent	15-6	71%from 66%	+6.4	n=21
+ in November	5-2	71%from 71%	+12.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-6	68%from 71%	+5.2	n=19
+ vs the Sun Belt	10-6	63%from 71%	+4.4	n=16
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-8	67%from 66%	+4.7	n=24
+ vs the Sun Belt	10-6	63%from 66%	+4.4	n=16
+ in November	5-2	71%from 63%	+12.8	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-6	63%from 63%	+4.4	n=16
+ in November	5-3	63%from 66%	+9.0	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-3	63%from 63%	+9.0	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Southern Miss — the basics

146 graded games since 2014

at home	34-38	47%	-2.0	n=72
in a conference game	47-46	51%	-0.7	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	61-73	46%	-1.9	n=134
vs a G5 opponent	63-62	50%	-1.1	n=125
vs the Sun Belt	18-23	44%	-4.3	n=41
in November	23-23	50%	+0.1	n=46
at this venue	34-38	47%	-2.0	n=72
in the last 5 seasons	27-34	44%	-2.9	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Southern Miss — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 146 graded games: -1.3 pts vs their number per game	n=146
Southern Miss has failed to cover 5 straight	n=5

Southern Miss — combinations

10 lean Southern Miss · 144 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 53%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in November	23-20	53%from 51%	+0.5	n=43
+ at this venue	10-11	48%from 53%	-4.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 48%	-9.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 53%	-3.8	n=19
vs a G5 opponent + in November	23-21	52%from 50%	+0.3	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 52%	-3.8	n=19
+ at this venue	10-12	45%from 52%	-4.2	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 45%	-9.3	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-22	51%from 46%	+0.3	n=45
+ at this venue	10-11	48%from 51%	-4.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 48%	-9.3	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-11	45%from 51%	-3.7	n=20
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	47-46	51%from 51%	-0.7	n=93
+ in November	23-20	53%from 51%	+0.5	n=43
+ at this venue	10-11	48%from 53%	-4.1	n=21
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-10	47%from 53%	-3.8	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	47-46	51%from 51%	-0.7	n=93
+ in November	23-20	53%from 51%	+0.5	n=43
+ at this venue	22-25	47%from 51%	-2.3	n=47
+ vs the Sun Belt	14-17	45%from 51%	-4.1	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-22	44%from 51%	-3.4	n=39
+ at this venue	22-25	47%from 51%	-2.3	n=47
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-12	40%from 47%	-4.5	n=20
+ vs the Sun Belt	14-17	45%from 51%	-4.1	n=31
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-17	45%from 45%	-4.1	n=31
+ at this venue	7-9	44%from 45%	-3.1	n=16
+ in November	6-9	40%from 45%	-7.5	n=15
+ in the last 5 seasons	17-22	44%from 51%	-3.4	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.