How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Troy — the basics
145 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 45-26 | 63% | +2.8 | n=71 |
| vs Louisiana | 3-4 | 43% | -8.2 | n=7 |
| in a conference game | 54-39 | 58% | +1.1 | n=93 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 71-58 | 55% | +0.6 | n=129 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 68-56 | 55% | +0.5 | n=124 |
| vs the Sun Belt | 55-39 | 59% | +1.1 | n=94 |
| in October | 22-20 | 52% | +0.5 | n=42 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 38-28 | 58% | +1.6 | n=66 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Troy — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +1.9 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 145 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game | n=145 |
Troy — combinations
91 lean Troy · 25 lean against
Read this first. 124 combinations shown. The best one here is 78%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 22-9 | 71%from 63% | +3.5 | n=31 |
| in October + in the last 5 seasons | 12-6 | 67%from 52% | +5.5 | n=18 |
| on the road + vs a G5 opponent | 36-19 | 65%from 63% | +3.2 | n=55 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 18-7 | 72%from 65% | +3.3 | n=25 |
| + in October | 13-6 | 68%from 65% | +6.5 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-2 | 78%from 68% | +7.7 | n=9 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 30-17 | 64%from 65% | +2.9 | n=47 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-6 | 71%from 64% | +3.0 | n=21 |
| + in October | 12-6 | 67%from 64% | +6.1 | n=18 |
| vs the Sun Belt + in the last 5 seasons | 28-15 | 65%from 59% | +2.4 | n=43 |
| in a conference game + in the last 5 seasons | 27-15 | 64%from 58% | +2.3 | n=42 |
| on the road + vs the Sun Belt | 30-17 | 64%from 63% | +2.9 | n=47 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 15-6 | 71%from 64% | +3.0 | n=21 |
| + in October | 12-6 | 67%from 64% | +6.1 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-2 | 75%from 67% | +7.1 | n=8 |
| on the road + in a conference game | 29-17 | 63%from 63% | +2.8 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 63% | +2.8 | n=20 |
| + in October | 12-6 | 67%from 63% | +6.1 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-2 | 75%from 67% | +7.1 | n=8 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 29-17 | 63%from 63% | +2.8 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 63% | +2.8 | n=20 |
| + in October | 12-6 | 67%from 63% | +6.1 | n=18 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 29-17 | 63%from 63% | +2.8 | n=46 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 29-17 | 63%from 63% | +2.8 | n=46 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 63% | +2.8 | n=20 |
| + in October | 12-6 | 67%from 63% | +6.1 | n=18 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 27-17 | 61%from 63% | +2.3 | n=44 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 14-6 | 70%from 61% | +2.8 | n=20 |
| + in October | 11-6 | 65%from 61% | +6.1 | n=17 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 27-17 | 61%from 61% | +2.3 | n=44 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 27-17 | 61%from 61% | +2.3 | n=44 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.