South Alabama at Louisiana—

ST Model Louisiana -4.4

Trends · 2026 week 10

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

South Alabama — the basics

143 graded games since 2014

on the road	28-40	41%	+0.0	n=68
vs Louisiana	5-6	45%	-1.3	n=11
in a conference game	41-52	44%	-1.6	n=93
vs an FBS opponent	58-71	45%	-0.9	n=129
vs a G5 opponent	56-72	44%	-0.7	n=128
vs the Sun Belt	41-52	44%	-1.6	n=93
in November	18-26	41%	-4.0	n=44
at this venue	2-3	40%	-0.5	n=5
in the last 5 seasons	27-36	43%	+1.4	n=63

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

South Alabama — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.1 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 143 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=143

South Alabama — combinations

11 lean South Alabama · 168 lean against

Read this first. 188 combinations shown. The best one here is 57%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs Louisiana + in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
vs Louisiana + in a conference game	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs an FBS opponent	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ vs the Sun Belt	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs the Sun Belt	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5
vs Louisiana + vs an FBS opponent	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs a G5 opponent	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ vs the Sun Belt	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	5-6	45%from 45%	-1.3	n=11
+ in November	4-3	57%from 45%	+1.0	n=7
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5
+ at this venue	2-3	40%from 45%	-0.5	n=5
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 45%	-4.8	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Louisiana — the basics

132 graded games since 2014

at home	29-29	50%	-0.1	n=58
vs South Alabama	6-5	55%	+1.3	n=11
in a conference game	45-41	52%	+0.9	n=86
vs an FBS opponent	60-61	50%	+0.4	n=121
vs a G5 opponent	60-58	51%	+0.3	n=118
vs the Sun Belt	45-41	52%	+0.9	n=86
in November	23-18	56%	+3.9	n=41
at this venue	29-29	50%	-0.1	n=58
in the last 5 seasons	33-32	51%	+0.8	n=65

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Louisiana — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 132 graded games: +0.4 pts vs their number per game	n=132
Louisiana has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Louisiana — combinations

137 lean Louisiana · 49 lean against

Read this first. 226 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 71% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in November + in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 56%	+4.0	n=20
at home + vs South Alabama	3-2	60%from 50%	+0.5	n=5
+ in a conference game	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs an FBS opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs a G5 opponent	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ vs the Sun Belt	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
+ at this venue	3-2	60%from 60%	+0.5	n=5
vs South Alabama + at this venue	3-2	60%from 55%	+0.5	n=5
vs South Alabama + in the last 5 seasons	3-2	60%from 55%	+4.8	n=5
vs an FBS opponent + in November	23-17	57%from 50%	+4.4	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-8	60%from 57%	+4.0	n=20
+ at this venue	10-9	53%from 57%	+3.8	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 53%	+1.9	n=11
in a conference game + in November	21-16	57%from 52%	+3.5	n=37
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-7	61%from 57%	+3.1	n=18
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 57%	+2.7	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 50%	+1.9	n=11

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.