Florida International at Liberty—

ST Model Liberty -5.5

Trends · 2026 week 9

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Florida International — the basics

136 graded games since 2014

on the road	27-31	47%	-2.3	n=58
in a conference game	41-48	46%	-1.9	n=89
vs an FBS opponent	61-65	48%	-1.3	n=126
vs a G5 opponent	51-65	44%	-2.4	n=116
vs the Conference USA	41-48	46%	-1.9	n=89
in October	23-21	52%	+2.0	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	29-32	48%	-3.3	n=61

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Florida International — form & streaks

Last 12 games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 136 graded games: -1.5 pts vs their number per game	n=136

Florida International — combinations

14 lean Florida International · 68 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 53%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 58% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
in a conference game + in October	20-18	53%from 46%	+2.2	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 53%	-0.1	n=18
vs the Conference USA + in October	20-18	53%from 46%	+2.2	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 53%	-0.1	n=18
vs a G5 opponent + in October	21-19	53%from 44%	+2.3	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 53%	-0.1	n=18
vs an FBS opponent + in October	23-21	52%from 48%	+2.0	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 52%	-1.1	n=21
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	27-29	48%from 48%	-3.0	n=56
in October + in the last 5 seasons	10-11	48%from 52%	-1.1	n=21
on the road + in October	9-10	47%from 47%	+0.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 47%	+0.4	n=11
on the road + vs an FBS opponent	27-31	47%from 47%	-2.3	n=58
+ in October	9-10	47%from 47%	+0.7	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 47%	+0.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-16	45%from 47%	-3.7	n=29
+ vs the Conference USA	18-24	43%from 47%	-2.4	n=42
+ in October	8-9	47%from 43%	+1.1	n=17
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 43%	-5.0	n=19
+ vs a G5 opponent	20-28	42%from 47%	-3.2	n=48
+ in October	8-9	47%from 42%	+1.1	n=17
+ vs the Conference USA	18-24	43%from 42%	-2.4	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-14	36%from 42%	-5.4	n=22
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	41-48	46%from 46%	-1.9	n=89
+ in October	20-18	53%from 46%	+2.2	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-9	50%from 53%	-0.1	n=18
+ vs a G5 opponent	41-48	46%from 46%	-1.9	n=89
+ in October	20-18	53%from 46%	+2.2	n=38
+ vs the Conference USA	41-48	46%from 46%	-1.9	n=89
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-22	45%from 46%	-4.2	n=40
+ vs the Conference USA	41-48	46%from 46%	-1.9	n=89
+ in October	20-18	53%from 46%	+2.2	n=38
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-22	45%from 46%	-4.2	n=40
+ in the last 5 seasons	18-22	45%from 46%	-4.2	n=40

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Liberty — the basics

104 graded games since 2014

at home	24-24	50%	-0.7	n=48
in a conference game	11-17	39%	-2.5	n=28
vs an FBS opponent	50-45	53%	+0.9	n=95
vs a G5 opponent	38-33	54%	+0.8	n=71
vs the Conference USA	17-18	49%	+1.0	n=35
in October	15-13	54%	+0.1	n=28
at this venue	24-24	50%	-0.7	n=48
in the last 5 seasons	28-36	44%	-2.7	n=64

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Liberty — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -4.2 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 104 graded games: +0.5 pts vs their number per game	n=104
Liberty has failed to cover 4 straight	n=4

Liberty — combinations

15 lean Liberty · 116 lean against

Read this first. 162 combinations shown. The best one here is 60%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 67% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in October	15-10	60%from 53%	+1.6	n=25
+ at this venue	6-5	55%from 60%	+3.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 55%	-0.4	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-9	47%from 60%	-1.1	n=17
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	34-28	55%from 53%	+1.6	n=62
+ in October	11-8	58%from 55%	+0.0	n=19
+ at this venue	4-5	44%from 58%	-0.7	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 58%	-4.1	n=14
+ at this venue	16-14	53%from 55%	+1.4	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 53%	-1.4	n=22
+ in the last 5 seasons	23-23	50%from 55%	-0.9	n=46
+ vs the Conference USA	17-18	49%from 55%	+1.0	n=35
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 49%	+1.4	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-16	47%from 49%	-0.1	n=30
+ in October	6-7	46%from 49%	-2.0	n=13
at home + vs an FBS opponent	20-19	51%from 50%	+0.2	n=39
+ in October	6-5	55%from 51%	+3.4	n=11
+ at this venue	6-5	55%from 55%	+3.4	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 55%	-0.4	n=8
+ vs a G5 opponent	16-14	53%from 51%	+1.4	n=30
+ at this venue	16-14	53%from 53%	+1.4	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	11-11	50%from 53%	-1.4	n=22
+ vs the Conference USA	10-10	50%from 53%	+1.4	n=20
+ in October	4-5	44%from 53%	-0.7	n=9
+ at this venue	20-19	51%from 51%	+0.2	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 51%	-2.8	n=28
+ vs the Conference USA	10-10	50%from 51%	+1.4	n=20
+ at this venue	10-10	50%from 50%	+1.4	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 50%	+0.6	n=16
+ in October	2-5	29%from 50%	-5.6	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-15	46%from 51%	-2.8	n=28

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.