How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Missouri State — the basics
50 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 16-13 | 55% | +0.4 | n=29 |
| in a conference game | 12-18 | 40% | -0.9 | n=30 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 14-11 | 56% | -0.6 | n=25 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 15-25 | 38% | -2.2 | n=40 |
| vs the Conference USA | 4-4 | 50% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| in October | 5-9 | 36% | -0.1 | n=14 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 19-24 | 44% | +0.2 | n=43 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Missouri State — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: +3.5 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 50 graded games: -0.3 pts vs their number per game | n=50 |
| Missouri State has failed to cover 3 straight | n=3 |
Missouri State — combinations
2 lean Missouri State · 35 lean against
Read this first. 60 combinations shown. The best one here is 61%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on the road + vs an FBS opponent | 11-7 | 61%from 55% | -0.2 | n=18 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-5 | 55%from 61% | +1.6 | n=11 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 3-6 | 33%from 61% | -7.6 | n=9 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-4 | 43%from 33% | -1.0 | n=7 |
| on the road + in the last 5 seasons | 11-11 | 50%from 55% | +1.4 | n=22 |
| vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons | 9-9 | 50%from 56% | +0.3 | n=18 |
| in a conference game + vs the Conference USA | 4-4 | 50%from 40% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 50% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| vs an FBS opponent + vs the Conference USA | 4-4 | 50%from 56% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 50% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| vs a G5 opponent + vs the Conference USA | 4-4 | 50%from 38% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 50% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| vs the Conference USA + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 50% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| on the road + in a conference game | 6-8 | 43%from 55% | -0.0 | n=14 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 6-8 | 43%from 43% | -0.0 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-8 | 43%from 43% | -0.0 | n=14 |
| + in October | 3-5 | 38%from 43% | +1.6 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 6-8 | 43%from 43% | -0.0 | n=14 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 2-3 | 40%from 43% | -1.9 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 2-3 | 40%from 40% | -1.9 | n=5 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 2-3 | 40%from 40% | -1.9 | n=5 |
| + in October | 3-5 | 38%from 43% | +1.6 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 3-5 | 38%from 38% | +1.6 | n=8 |
| in a conference game + vs a G5 opponent | 12-18 | 40%from 40% | -0.9 | n=30 |
| + vs the Conference USA | 4-4 | 50%from 40% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 4-4 | 50%from 50% | +1.3 | n=8 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 12-18 | 40%from 40% | -0.9 | n=30 |
| + in October | 5-9 | 36%from 40% | -0.1 | n=14 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-9 | 36%from 36% | -0.1 | n=14 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.