Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston—

ST Model Middle Tennessee -3.9

Trends · 2026 week 12

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.

Middle Tennessee — the basics

142 graded games since 2014

on the road	33-40	45%	-1.3	n=73
in a conference game	44-46	49%	-0.4	n=90
vs an FBS opponent	64-70	48%	-1.2	n=134
vs a G5 opponent	59-57	51%	-0.4	n=116
vs the Conference USA	45-46	49%	-0.4	n=91
in November	22-22	50%	-0.2	n=44
in the last 5 seasons	26-34	43%	0.0	n=60

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Middle Tennessee — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -3.8 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 142 graded games: -1.0 pts vs their number per game	n=142
Middle Tennessee has covered 2 straight	n=2

Middle Tennessee — combinations

0 lean Middle Tennessee · 87 lean against

Read this first. 98 combinations shown. The best one here is 51%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 58% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	54-54	50%from 48%	-0.7	n=108
+ in November	21-21	50%from 50%	-0.1	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 50%	+0.1	n=19
+ vs the Conference USA	45-46	49%from 50%	-0.4	n=91
+ in November	20-21	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.4	n=39
+ in the last 5 seasons	21-26	45%from 50%	-0.7	n=47
vs an FBS opponent + in November	22-22	50%from 48%	-0.2	n=44
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 50%	+0.1	n=19
vs a G5 opponent + in November	21-21	50%from 51%	-0.1	n=42
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 50%	+0.1	n=19
vs an FBS opponent + vs the Conference USA	45-46	49%from 48%	-0.4	n=91
+ in November	20-21	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 49%	+0.1	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.4	n=39
vs a G5 opponent + vs the Conference USA	45-46	49%from 51%	-0.4	n=91
+ in November	20-21	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 49%	+0.1	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.4	n=39
in a conference game + vs an FBS opponent	44-46	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=90
+ vs a G5 opponent	44-46	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=90
+ vs the Conference USA	44-46	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=90
+ in November	20-21	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.4	n=39
+ vs the Conference USA	44-46	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=90
+ in November	20-21	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.4	n=39
+ in November	20-21	49%from 49%	-0.4	n=41
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-12	37%from 49%	+0.1	n=19
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-23	41%from 49%	-1.4	n=39

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Sam Houston — the basics

45 graded games since 2014

at home	4-8	33%	-6.0	n=12
in a conference game	10-18	36%	-4.9	n=28
vs an FBS opponent	17-23	43%	-2.3	n=40
vs a G5 opponent	16-22	42%	-2.3	n=38
vs the Conference USA	9-15	38%	-4.0	n=24
in November	6-8	43%	-4.5	n=14
at this venue	4-8	33%	-6.0	n=12
in the last 5 seasons	19-24	44%	-2.2	n=43

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line

Sam Houston — form & streaks

Last 12 games: -8.4 pts vs their number per game	n=12
All 45 graded games: -2.6 pts vs their number per game	n=45
Sam Houston has failed to cover 2 straight	n=2

Sam Houston — combinations

0 lean Sam Houston · 111 lean against

Read this first. 135 combinations shown. The best one here is 50%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 60% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Sample
vs an FBS opponent + in November	6-6	50%from 43%	-1.4	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 50%	-1.4	n=12
vs the Conference USA + in November	5-5	50%from 38%	-2.9	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-5	50%from 50%	-2.9	n=10
vs an FBS opponent + in the last 5 seasons	17-21	45%from 43%	-1.8	n=38
vs a G5 opponent + in the last 5 seasons	16-21	43%from 42%	-2.3	n=37
in November + in the last 5 seasons	6-8	43%from 43%	-4.5	n=14
vs an FBS opponent + vs a G5 opponent	14-19	42%from 43%	-1.9	n=33
+ in November	5-6	45%from 42%	-3.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-6	45%from 45%	-3.8	n=11
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-18	44%from 42%	-1.9	n=32
+ at this venue	4-6	40%from 42%	-2.6	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ vs the Conference USA	9-15	38%from 42%	-4.0	n=24
+ in November	5-5	50%from 38%	-2.9	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	9-15	38%from 38%	-4.0	n=24
+ at this venue	3-5	38%from 38%	-3.3	n=8
in a conference game + in November	5-7	42%from 36%	-6.2	n=12
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 42%	-6.2	n=12
at home + vs an FBS opponent	4-6	40%from 33%	-2.6	n=10
+ vs a G5 opponent	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ at this venue	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ vs the Conference USA	3-5	38%from 40%	-3.3	n=8
+ at this venue	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-6	40%from 40%	-2.6	n=10
+ vs the Conference USA	3-5	38%from 40%	-3.3	n=8
+ at this venue	3-5	38%from 38%	-3.3	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-5	38%from 38%	-3.3	n=8

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.