How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. FBS teams carry far less history than NFL ones (a median of 148 graded games vs ~435), so that baseline runs higher here — a perfect record is cheaper in college. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself.
Southern Miss — the basics
146 graded games since 2014
| on the road | 34-34 | 50% | -0.2 | n=68 |
| vs Louisiana Tech | 5-4 | 56% | +8.6 | n=9 |
| in a conference game | 47-46 | 51% | -0.7 | n=93 |
| vs an FBS opponent | 61-73 | 46% | -1.9 | n=134 |
| vs a G5 opponent | 63-62 | 50% | -1.1 | n=125 |
| vs the Sun Belt | 18-23 | 44% | -4.3 | n=41 |
| in November | 23-23 | 50% | +0.1 | n=46 |
| at this venue | 3-2 | 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| in the last 5 seasons | 27-34 | 44% | -2.9 | n=61 |
record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line
Southern Miss — form & streaks
| Last 12 games: -1.9 pts vs their number per game | n=12 |
| All 146 graded games: -1.3 pts vs their number per game | n=146 |
| Southern Miss has failed to cover 5 straight | n=5 |
Southern Miss — combinations
54 lean Southern Miss · 59 lean against
Read this first. 125 combinations shown. The best one here is 62%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 64% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.
| Combination | Rec | % | Pts | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Louisiana Tech + in a conference game | 5-3 | 63%from 56% | +10.6 | n=8 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 5-3 | 63%from 63% | +10.6 | n=8 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-3 | 63%from 63% | +10.6 | n=8 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-3 | 63%from 63% | +10.6 | n=8 |
| on the road + vs Louisiana Tech | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + vs an FBS opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 60% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| on the road + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| vs Louisiana Tech + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| vs an FBS opponent + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 46% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| vs a G5 opponent + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 50% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| vs Louisiana Tech + vs an FBS opponent | 5-4 | 56%from 56% | +8.6 | n=9 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + vs a G5 opponent | 5-4 | 56%from 56% | +8.6 | n=9 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| vs Louisiana Tech + vs a G5 opponent | 5-4 | 56%from 56% | +8.6 | n=9 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 56% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| on the road + vs a G5 opponent | 29-24 | 55%from 50% | +0.3 | n=53 |
| + at this venue | 3-2 | 60%from 55% | +11.2 | n=5 |
| + in November | 13-9 | 59%from 55% | +4.9 | n=22 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 5-4 | 56%from 59% | +2.4 | n=9 |
| + vs the Sun Belt | 10-9 | 53%from 55% | -4.2 | n=19 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 7-9 | 44%from 53% | -6.3 | n=16 |
| + in November | 3-4 | 43%from 53% | -4.6 | n=7 |
| + in the last 5 seasons | 10-13 | 43%from 55% | -3.7 | n=23 |
indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it
Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or any guarantee of outcome. A trend describes the past; it does not predict. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.