ST Model Accuracy
Out-of-sample backtests of the per-game projection engine — projections vs. what actually happened, compared to a simple baseline
Per-game projections
Beat the baseline by 4% on per-game accuracy · p10–p90 coverage 81% (2025-26 backtest, 3,294 preds)
Player Accuracy
per-game rate vs Baseline · 3,294 predsskill 4%p10–p90 cov 81%
| Stat | N | Model/g | Base/g | Skill | Cov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring | |||||
| Points | 366 | 2.54 | 2.71 | +6% | 78% |
| 3PM | 366 | 0.35 | 0.36 | +5% | 79% |
| Playmaking | |||||
| Assists | 366 | 0.69 | 0.73 | +6% | 76% |
| Turnovers | 366 | 0.33 | 0.36 | +7% | 77% |
| Defense & Boards | |||||
| Rebounds | 366 | 0.86 | 0.88 | +2% | 86% |
| Steals | 366 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -1% | 80% |
| Blocks | 366 | 0.14 | 0.15 | +8% | 82% |
| Efficiency | |||||
| FG% | 366 | 0.03 | 0.04 | +5% | 84% |
| FT% | 366 | 0.05 | 0.06 | +2% | 87% |
Game Model — Out-of-Sample Backtest
backtest
| Season | Games | Brier | Base | Win% | Margin MAE | Total MAE | Vegas MAE | Beat% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1,213 | 0.2059 | 0.2471 | 69% | 11.40 | 16.3 | — | — |
| 2024-25 | 1,216 | 0.2113 | 0.2482 | 66% | 11.03 | 16.0 | — | — |
| 2023-24 | 1,212 | 0.2120 | 0.2480 | 66% | 11.07 | 15.5 | — | — |
| 2022-23 | 1,210 | 0.2274 | 0.2434 | 63% | 10.25 | 14.9 | — | — |
| 2021-22 | 1,221 | 0.2243 | 0.2484 | 64% | 11.10 | 17.9 | — | — |
| 2020-21 | 1,098 | 0.2317 | 0.2492 | 61% | 11.13 | 24.1 | — | — |
| 2019-20 | 949 | 0.2144 | 0.2476 | 67% | 10.13 | 15.7 | — | — |
| 2018-19 | 1,205 | 0.2138 | 0.2419 | 66% | 10.25 | 15.2 | — | — |
| 2017-18 | 1,205 | 0.2185 | 0.2437 | 64% | 9.94 | 15.2 | — | — |
| 2016-17 | 1,208 | 0.2195 | 0.2430 | 65% | 9.99 | 15.1 | — | — |
| 2015-16 | 1,212 | 0.2086 | 0.2419 | 68% | 9.73 | 14.7 | — | — |
| Overall | 12,949 | 0.2170 | 0.2456 | 65% | 10.55 | 16.4 | — | — |
The model's pre-game win probability is scored by Brier against every completed game's outcome; a Brier below the home-field Basemeans it adds signal beyond "home teams win." Margin/Total MAE measure the projected score. Vegas MAE / Beat% read — for this sport: the free odds feed carries no historical closing lines yet, so those columns populate as line history accrues.