NBA 2026-27 Playoff Odds

Forward projected records & playoff odds — Monte-Carlo over a balanced schedule from current-roster player projections blended with last season's ratings. Updates as players are traded, drafted & signed.

Championship Favorites

SAS26%

Spurs

Projected Playoff Bracket

favorite advances · series win %

First Round

1PHI68%

8MIA32%

4DET53%

5CLE47%

3ATL53%

6CHA47%

2NYK59%

7ORL41%

Conf Semifinals

1PHI60%

4DET40%

2NYK59%

3ATL41%

East Finals

1PHI55%

2NYK45%

NBA Finals

EastSAS69%

WestPHI31%

Champion

SAS

First Round

1SAS83%

8PHX17%

4OKC52%

5POR48%

3DEN60%

6MIN41%

2HOU69%

7LAL31%

Conf Semifinals

1SAS77%

4OKC23%

2HOU62%

3DEN38%

West Finals

1SAS67%

2HOU33%

Eastern Conference

top 8 make playoffs

#	Team	PROJ	W	PLYF	CONF	CHIP
1	PHI76ers	49-33	4942–55	96%	22%	11%
2	NYKKnicks	48-34	4842–54	95%	19%	10%
3	ATLHawks	47-35	4741–52	90%	10%	5%
4	DETPistons	46-36	4641–52	89%	11%	5%
5	CLECavaliers	46-36	4640–52	89%	10%	5%
6	CHAHornets	46-36	4640–52	87%	11%	6%
7	ORLMagic	45-37	4540–51	84%	10%	5%
8	MIAHeat	43-39	4336–49	69%	5%	2%
playoff cut
9	BOSCeltics	41-41	4135–48	52%	2%	1%
10	TORRaptors	38-44	3833–44	26%	1%	<1%
11	INDPacers	35-47	3530–41	9%	<1%	<1%
12	MILBucks	35-47	3530–41	10%	<1%	<1%
13	CHIBulls	33-49	3326–39	3%	0%	0%
14	WASWizards	30-52	3024–36	1%	0%	0%
15	BKNNets	27-55	2722–33	0%	0%	0%

Western Conference

top 8 make playoffs

#	Team	PROJ	W	PLYF	CONF	CHIP
1	SASSpurs	55-27	5549–60	>99%	47%	26%
2	HOURockets	51-31	5144–57	99%	19%	10%
3	DENNuggets	47-35	4741–54	93%	9%	4%
4	OKCThunder	46-36	4640–51	88%	7%	3%
5	PORTrail Blazers	45-37	4539–51	84%	6%	3%
6	MINTimberwolves	44-39	4438–50	74%	3%	2%
7	LALLakers	44-39	4438–49	74%	3%	2%
8	PHXSuns	42-40	4235–48	60%	3%	1%
playoff cut
9	DALMavericks	41-41	4134–47	48%	1%	<1%
10	NOPPelicans	39-43	3933–46	36%	1%	<1%
11	UTAJazz	37-45	3731–43	18%	<1%	<1%
12	LACClippers	36-46	3631–42	15%	<1%	0%
13	GSWWarriors	35-47	3529–41	8%	<1%	0%
14	SACKings	33-49	3327–39	3%	0%	0%
15	MEMGrizzlies	27-55	2722–33	<1%	0%	0%

Movers This Week

biggest week-over-week swings

Team	Now	Wk Δ
PHI76ers	96%	+22
LALLakers	74%	-21
DALMavericks	48%	+6
BOSCeltics	52%	-5
UTAJazz	18%	+4
ORLMagic	84%	-3
MIAHeat	69%	-3
MINTimberwolves	74%	+3