Betting Edge

How to use this: The ST Model simulates each game thousands of times (lineup vs. starter, park-adjusted, bullpen) into a projected score and win probability. MLB is high-variance and the closing line is sharp — this is nota claim to beat it. Each game shows the model's win% next to the moneyline price and the best price on both sides with the book offering it — the edge that compounds is price, so take the number. We only flag a leanwhen the model's edge over a price is modest and off a longshot; a big model-vs-market gap is usually our miss or a stale line, not value, so it shows as no play. Value Plays collects the few that clear that bar. The earlier date tabs are a backtest — each shows how the model graded against the closing line that day (straight-up, the value plays, and whether our win probabilities beat the market).