BAL at ATLBAL -4.5o/u 48.5

ST Model BAL -1.3(+3.2 vs market)

Since first recorded BAL -4.5o/u 48.5unchanged · 43d ago · 2 books

Trends · player props · 2026 week 5

How to read this: every angle below is a true fact about these teams — and there are hundreds of them, so some will look striking by pure chance. Each side's combinations carry a chance baseline telling you how good the best one would look if nothing were going on. Signals disagreeing is normal; weigh them yourself. There is deliberately no single verdict here.

BAL — the basics

439 graded games since 1999

on the road	122-102	54%	+1.7	0/224	n=224
vs ATL	5-1	83%	+6.6	0/6	n=6
as a favorite	148-139	52%	+2.5	0/287	n=287
spread 3.5-6.5	70-68	51%	+1.5	0/138	n=138
on Sunday night	20-21	49%	+0.3	0/41	n=41
in October	44-55	44%	+0.3	0/99	n=99
on turf	97-89	52%	+2.6	0/186	n=186
in the last 5 seasons	44-44	50%	+1.3	0/88	n=88

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

BAL — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -2.5 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 439 graded games: +2.2 pts vs their number per game	n=439

BAL — combinations

31 lean BAL · 24 lean against

Read this first. 69 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
vs ATL + on turf	4-1	80%from 83%	+7.6	0/5	n=5
on Sunday night + in October	4-1	80%from 49%	+7.3	0/5	n=5
on turf + in the last 5 seasons	15-5	75%from 52%	+3.9	0/20	n=20
spread 3.5-6.5 + on Sunday night	9-5	64%from 51%	+3.6	0/14	n=14
+ on turf	4-3	57%from 64%	+3.6	0/7	n=7
as a favorite + on turf	68-48	59%from 52%	+4.5	0/116	n=116
+ in the last 5 seasons	13-4	76%from 59%	+4.9	0/17	n=17
on the road + in the last 5 seasons	24-19	56%from 54%	+2.0	0/43	n=43
spread 3.5-6.5 + on turf	29-25	54%from 51%	+3.3	0/54	n=54
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 54%	+5.8	0/6	n=6
on the road + spread 3.5-6.5	41-37	53%from 54%	+1.5	0/78	n=78
+ on Sunday night	5-3	63%from 53%	+3.5	0/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-6	57%from 53%	+3.1	0/14	n=14
+ on turf	14-14	50%from 53%	+2.1	0/28	n=28
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-1	83%from 50%	+5.8	0/6	n=6
+ in October	6-11	35%from 53%	-1.9	0/17	n=17
+ on turf	2-4	33%from 35%	-5.0	0/6	n=6
in October + in the last 5 seasons	11-10	52%from 44%	+1.2	0/21	n=21
on the road + on Sunday night	12-11	52%from 54%	-0.1	0/23	n=23
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 52%	+1.2	0/6	n=6
+ on turf	4-5	44%from 52%	+2.4	0/9	n=9
on the road + on turf	42-39	52%from 54%	+1.3	0/81	n=81
+ in the last 5 seasons	14-5	74%from 52%	+3.8	0/19	n=19
on the road + as a favorite	54-53	50%from 54%	+0.7	0/107	n=107
+ on turf	19-11	63%from 50%	+2.9	0/30	n=30
+ in the last 5 seasons	12-4	75%from 63%	+4.8	0/16	n=16
+ spread 3.5-6.5	18-17	51%from 50%	+1.2	0/35	n=35
+ on turf	6-2	75%from 51%	+5.8	0/8	n=8
+ in the last 5 seasons	6-6	50%from 51%	+1.4	0/12	n=12
+ in October	4-5	44%from 51%	+1.2	0/9	n=9
+ in the last 5 seasons	16-16	50%from 50%	+1.1	0/32	n=32
+ in October	9-17	35%from 50%	-1.5	0/26	n=26
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 35%	+1.1	0/9	n=9
+ on turf	2-3	40%from 35%	-4.0	0/5	n=5
+ on Sunday night	3-7	30%from 50%	-5.8	0/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	2-3	40%from 30%	+1.3	0/5	n=5

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

ATL — the basics

426 graded games since 1999

at home	94-120	44%	-1.0	22/214	n=214
vs BAL	1-5	17%	-6.6	0/6	n=6
as an underdog	103-110	48%	-0.7	25/213	n=213
spread 3.5-6.5	82-81	50%	+0.2	20/163	n=163
on Sunday night	8-9	47%	-0.5	4/17	n=17
in October	45-56	45%	-2.1	10/101	n=101
on turf	138-164	46%	-1.0	32/302	n=302
at this venue	28-44	39%	-1.9	22/72	n=72
under this head coach	21-24	47%	-0.9	45/45	n=45
in the last 5 seasons	34-49	41%	-2.8	34/83	n=83

record vs the closing number · pts = avg margin vs the line · x/n = games under the current head coach

ATL — form & streaks

Last 16 games: -2.0 pts vs their number per game	n=16
All 426 graded games: -0.6 pts vs their number per game	n=426

ATL — combinations

36 lean ATL · 86 lean against

Read this first. 146 combinations shown. The best one here is 83%. With this many combinations you'd expect the best to be about 83% by chance alone, and about 0 perfect records — this matchup has 0.

Combination	Rec	%	Pts	Now	Sample
spread 3.5-6.5 + on Sunday night	4-2	67%from 50%	+4.1	2/6	n=6
+ on turf	4-1	80%from 67%	+5.4	1/5	n=5
at home + on Sunday night	7-4	64%from 44%	+2.8	1/11	n=11
+ on turf	7-4	64%from 64%	+2.8	1/11	n=11
in October + under this head coach	6-4	60%from 45%	-0.2	10/10	n=10
+ in the last 5 seasons	4-3	57%from 60%	-4.3	7/7	n=7
on Sunday night + on turf	8-6	57%from 47%	+0.9	2/14	n=14
spread 3.5-6.5 + under this head coach	11-9	55%from 50%	+1.8	20/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	7-8	47%from 55%	-1.2	15/15	n=15
as an underdog + in October	28-24	54%from 48%	-0.9	4/52	n=52
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 54%	+1.4	1/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-4	56%from 54%	+1.1	2/9	n=9
+ on turf	17-16	52%from 54%	-2.0	2/33	n=33
+ at this venue	4-2	67%from 52%	+1.4	1/6	n=6
+ in the last 5 seasons	3-3	50%from 52%	+1.3	1/6	n=6
as an underdog + under this head coach	13-12	52%from 48%	+2.0	25/25	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	8-8	50%from 52%	-0.4	16/16	n=16
spread 3.5-6.5 + at this venue	13-12	52%from 50%	+1.4	7/25	n=25
+ under this head coach	4-3	57%from 52%	+5.2	7/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 52%	-1.0	4/12	n=12
at home + spread 3.5-6.5	41-41	50%from 44%	+0.2	7/82	n=82
+ under this head coach	4-3	57%from 50%	+5.2	7/7	n=7
+ at this venue	13-12	52%from 50%	+1.4	7/25	n=25
+ under this head coach	4-3	57%from 52%	+5.2	7/7	n=7
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 52%	-1.0	4/12	n=12
+ on turf	41-41	50%from 50%	+0.2	7/82	n=82
+ under this head coach	4-3	57%from 50%	+5.2	7/7	n=7
+ at this venue	13-12	52%from 50%	+1.4	7/25	n=25
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 50%	-1.0	4/12	n=12
+ in October	10-10	50%from 50%	+0.4	1/20	n=20
+ on turf	10-10	50%from 50%	+0.4	1/20	n=20
+ in the last 5 seasons	5-7	42%from 50%	-1.0	4/12	n=12

indented rows narrow the one above · click any row for the games behind it · “Now” = games played by this team as it exists today

Informational only. Historical splits are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. A trend is a description of the past, not a prediction. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.