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Player Props

2026 · week 1
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
576 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs NO9/13pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDAL@ NYG9/14pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLARvs SF9/11pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKCvs DEN9/15pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSF@ LAR9/11pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNE@ SEA9/10pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCINvs TB9/13pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Bo NixQBDEN@ KC9/15pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CLE9/13pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHI@ CAR9/13pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTB@ CIN9/13pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUF@ HOU9/13pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLACvs ARI9/13pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs NE9/10pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ MIN9/13pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Geno SmithQBNYJ@ TEN9/13pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Tua TagovailoaQBATL@ PIT9/13pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18C.J. StroudQBHOUvs BUF9/13pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
19Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ IND9/13pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Daniel JonesQBINDvs BAL9/13pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
21Aaron RodgersQBPITvs ATL9/13pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
22Tyler ShoughQBNO@ DET9/13pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs WAS9/13pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Kirk CousinsQBLVvs MIA9/13pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
25Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ LAC9/13pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
26Kyler MurrayQBMINvs GB9/13pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
27Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ PHI9/13pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
28Cam WardQBTENvs NYJ9/13pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
29Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ JAX9/13pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
30Jaxson DartQBNYGvs DAL9/14pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
31Bryce YoungQBCARvs CHI9/13pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
32Quinn EwersQBMIA@ LV9/13pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
33Puka NacuaWRLARvs SF9/11rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
34Jonathan TaylorRBINDvs BAL9/13rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Nico CollinsWRHOUvs BUF9/13rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs NE9/10rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
37Derrick HenryRBBAL@ IND9/13rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
38George PickensWRDAL@ NYG9/14rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
39Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINvs TB9/13rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
40Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs NO9/13rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
41James CookRBBUF@ HOU9/13rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
42Bijan RobinsonRBATL@ PIT9/13rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
43Justin JeffersonWRMINvs GB9/13rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
44Tetairoa McMillanWRCARvs CHI9/13rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
45De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ LV9/13rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
46Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs NO9/13rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
47Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs NO9/13rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
48CeeDee LambWRDAL@ NYG9/14rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
49Zay FlowersWRBAL@ IND9/13rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
50Alec PierceWRINDvs BAL9/13rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
51Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs WAS9/13rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
52A.J. BrownWRNE@ SEA9/10rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
53Drake LondonWRATL@ PIT9/13rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
54Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ CIN9/13rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
55Chris OlaveWRNO@ DET9/13rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
56D'Andre SwiftRBCHI@ CAR9/13rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
57J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ KC9/15rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
58Malik NabersWRNYGvs DAL9/14rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
59Breece HallRBNYJ@ TEN9/13rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
60Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXvs CLE9/13rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
61Javonte WilliamsRBDAL@ NYG9/14rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
62Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ KC9/15rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
63Chase BrownRBCINvs TB9/13rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
64Ashton JeantyRBLVvs MIA9/13rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
65Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs SF9/11rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
66Josh JacobsRBGB@ MIN9/13rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
67Ladd McConkeyWRLACvs ARI9/13rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
68DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs WAS9/13rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
69Kenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs DEN9/15rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
70Trey McBrideTEARI@ LAC9/13rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
71Tony PollardRBTENvs NYJ9/13rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
72DK MetcalfWRPITvs ATL9/13rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
73Michael WilsonWRARI@ LAC9/13rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
74Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ PHI9/13rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
75Jaylen WarrenRBPITvs ATL9/13rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
76Luther BurdenWRCHI@ CAR9/13rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
77Colston LovelandTECHI@ CAR9/13rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
78Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ JAX9/13rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
79Rashee RiceWRKCvs DEN9/15rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
80Tee HigginsWRCINvs TB9/13rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
81Travis EtienneRBNO@ DET9/13rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENvs NYJ9/13rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
83Bucky IrvingRBTB@ CIN9/13rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
84Quentin JohnstonWRLACvs ARI9/13rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
85George KittleTESF@ LAR9/11rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
86Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs NE9/10rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
87Christian McCaffreyRBSF@ LAR9/11rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
88Oronde GadsdenTELACvs ARI9/13rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
89Rome OdunzeWRCHI@ CAR9/13rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
90Jakobi MeyersWRJAXvs CLE9/13rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
91Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ LAC9/13rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
92Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ KC9/15rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
93Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ LAC9/13rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
94Travis KelceTEKCvs DEN9/15rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
95Michael PittmanWRPITvs ATL9/13rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
96Rico DowdleRBPITvs ATL9/13rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
97Brock BowersTELVvs MIA9/13rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
98Omarion HamptonRBLACvs ARI9/13rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
99Chuba HubbardRBCARvs CHI9/13rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
100Troy FranklinWRDEN@ KC9/15rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
100 of 576
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.