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Player Props

2026 · week 7
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
504 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs GB10/25pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDAL@ PHI10/27pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLAR@ LV10/25pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKC@ SEA10/26pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSF@ ATL10/25pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNE@ CHI10/23pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCIN@ BAL10/25pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Bo NixQBDEN@ ARI10/25pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs NE10/23pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
10Baker MayfieldQBTB@ CAR10/25pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs KC10/26pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
12Jordan LoveQBGB@ DET10/25pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
13Geno SmithQBNYJvs MIA10/25pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
14Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs SF10/25pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
15C.J. StroudQBHOUvs NYG10/25pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
16Lamar JacksonQBBALvs CIN10/25pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
17Daniel JonesQBIND@ MIN10/25pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
18Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ NO10/25pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
19Tyler ShoughQBNOvs PIT10/25pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
20Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs DAL10/27pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
21Kirk CousinsQBLVvs LAR10/25pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
22Jacoby BrissettQBARIvs DEN10/25pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
23Kyler MurrayQBMINvs IND10/25pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
24Cam WardQBTENvs CLE10/25pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
25Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ TEN10/25pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
26Jaxson DartQBNYG@ HOU10/25pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
27Bryce YoungQBCARvs TB10/25pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
28Quinn EwersQBMIA@ NYJ10/25pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
29Puka NacuaWRLAR@ LV10/25rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
30Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ MIN10/25rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
31Nico CollinsWRHOUvs NYG10/25rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
32Derrick HenryRBBALvs CIN10/25rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
33Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs KC10/26rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
34George PickensWRDAL@ PHI10/27rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
35Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ BAL10/25rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
36Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs GB10/25rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
37Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs SF10/25rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
38Justin JeffersonWRMINvs IND10/25rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
39De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ NYJ10/25rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
40Tetairoa McMillanWRCARvs TB10/25rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
41Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs GB10/25rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
42Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs GB10/25rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
43CeeDee LambWRDAL@ PHI10/27rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
44Zay FlowersWRBALvs CIN10/25rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
45Alec PierceWRIND@ MIN10/25rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
46Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs DAL10/27rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
47A.J. BrownWRNE@ CHI10/23rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
48Drake LondonWRATLvs SF10/25rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
49Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ CAR10/25rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
50Chris OlaveWRNOvs PIT10/25rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
51D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NE10/23rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
52J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ ARI10/25rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
53Malik NabersWRNYG@ HOU10/25rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
54Breece HallRBNYJvs MIA10/25rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
55Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ ARI10/25rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
56Javonte WilliamsRBDAL@ PHI10/27rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
57Chase BrownRBCIN@ BAL10/25rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
58Ashton JeantyRBLVvs LAR10/25rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
59Kyren WilliamsRBLAR@ LV10/25rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
60Josh JacobsRBGB@ DET10/25rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
61DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs DAL10/27rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
62Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ SEA10/26rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
63Trey McBrideTEARIvs DEN10/25rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
64Tony PollardRBTENvs CLE10/25rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
65DK MetcalfWRPIT@ NO10/25rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
66Michael WilsonWRARIvs DEN10/25rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
67Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ NO10/25rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
68Luther BurdenWRCHIvs NE10/23rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
69Colston LovelandTECHIvs NE10/23rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
70Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ TEN10/25rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
71Rashee RiceWRKC@ SEA10/26rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
72Tee HigginsWRCIN@ BAL10/25rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
73Travis EtienneRBNOvs PIT10/25rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
74Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENvs CLE10/25rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
75Bucky IrvingRBTB@ CAR10/25rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
76George KittleTESF@ ATL10/25rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
77Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs KC10/26rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
78Christian McCaffreyRBSF@ ATL10/25rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
79Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs NE10/23rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
80Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs DEN10/25rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
81Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ ARI10/25rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
82Jeremiyah LoveRBARIvs DEN10/25rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
83Travis KelceTEKC@ SEA10/26rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
84Michael PittmanWRPIT@ NO10/25rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
85Rico DowdleRBPIT@ NO10/25rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
86Brock BowersTELVvs LAR10/25rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
87Chuba HubbardRBCARvs TB10/25rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
88Troy FranklinWRDEN@ ARI10/25rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
89Garrett WilsonWRNYJvs MIA10/25rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
90Tank DellWRHOUvs NYG10/25rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
91Harold FanninTECLE@ TEN10/25rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
92Tyler WarrenTEIND@ MIN10/25rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
93David MontgomeryRBHOUvs NYG10/25rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
94Juwan JohnsonTENOvs PIT10/25rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
95Christian WatsonWRGB@ DET10/25rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
96Kyle MonangaiRBCHIvs NE10/23rush yds≈base44.1
30+
65%
40+
52%
50+
42%
60+
33%
97Kyle PittsTEATLvs SF10/25rec yds≈base43.7
30+
61%
40+
47%
50+
34%
60+
25%
98Cam SkatteboRBNYG@ HOU10/25rush yds≈base43.6
30+
64%
40+
51%
50+
41%
60+
32%
99Ricky PearsallWRSF@ ATL10/25rec yds≈base43.4
30+
58%
40+
47%
50+
36%
60+
28%
100Jaxson DartQBNYG@ HOU10/25rush yds43.3
30+
60%
40+
46%
50+
32%
60+
23%
100 of 504
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.