Betting Edge
The ST Model’s read on every game — paired with the best price across sportsbooks to act on it
How to use this: The ST Model's lean on every game is analysis, not a lock — historically ~50% against the closing spread, so the edge that compounds is price: each game lists the best number on both sides and the book offering it — take it. Mid is the gap between those two numbers; the wider it is, the bigger the middle — the range of final scores where both sides win.
ST Model vs Market
Top Edges · Week 1 — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
ST vs mktST LAC -3.7 · mkt LAC -10.5
LeanARI +10.5
Best priceARI +11 -110best of 9
WinLAC 61% · mkt 78%
ST vs mktST IND -2.7 · mkt IND +3.5
LeanIND +3.5
Best priceIND +3.5 -110best of 9
WinIND 58% · mkt 40%
ST vs mktST MIA -1.1 · mkt MIA +3.5
LeanMIA +3.5
Best priceMIA +3.5 -110best of 9
WinMIA 53% · mkt 40%
ST vs mktST SEA -8.0 · mkt SEA -3.5
LeanSEA -3.5
Best priceSEA -3.5 -110best of 9
WinSEA 72% · mkt 60%
ST vs mktST JAX -11.6 · mkt JAX -7.5
LeanJAX -7.5
Best priceJAX -7.5 -110best of 9
WinJAX 80% · mkt 71%
ST vs mktST DET -10.9 · mkt DET -7.0
LeanDET -7.0
Best priceDET -7 -110best of 9
WinDET 79% · mkt 70%
ST vs mktST NYG -0.6 · mkt NYG +2.5
LeanNYG +2.5
Best priceNYG +3 -110best of 9
WinNYG 52% · mkt 43%
Full Slate — every upcoming game, model read + best price
ST Model
ST LAC -3.7 · mkt LAC -10.5
proj ARI 20 · LAC 24
leans ARI +10.5
◆ Mid 1
LAC -10 -110BetRivers
ARI +11 -110MyBookie
ST Model
ST IND -2.7 · mkt IND +3.5
proj BAL 22 · IND 25
leans IND +3.5
◆ Mid 0
IND +3.5 -110DraftKings
BAL -3.5 -110DraftKings
ST Model
ST MIA -1.1 · mkt MIA +3.5
proj MIA 22 · LV 21
leans MIA +3.5
◆ Mid 0.5
LV -3 -110LowVig
MIA +3.5 -110DraftKings
ST Model
ST SEA -8.0 · mkt SEA -3.5
proj NE 17 · SEA 25
leans SEA -3.5
◆ Mid 1
SEA -3.5 -110DraftKings
NE +4.5 -120FanDuel
ST Model
ST JAX -11.6 · mkt JAX -7.5
proj CLE 15 · JAX 27
leans JAX -7.5
◆ Mid 0
JAX -7.5 -110DraftKings
CLE +7.5 -110DraftKings
ST Model
ST DET -10.9 · mkt DET -7.0
proj NO 17 · DET 27
leans DET -7.0
◆ Mid 0.5
DET -7 -110DraftKings
NO +7.5 -117BetRivers
ST Model
ST NYG -0.6 · mkt NYG +2.5
proj DAL 24 · NYG 24
leans NYG +2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
NYG +3 -110BetUS
DAL -2.5 -110DraftKings
ST Model
ST HOU -1.4 · mkt HOU +1.0
proj BUF 21 · HOU 22
leans HOU +1.0
◆ Mid 0.5
HOU +1.5 -115DraftKings
BUF -1 -113BetRivers
ST Model
ST CIN -1.6 · mkt CIN -3.5
proj TB 23 · CIN 25
leans TB +3.5
◆ Mid 0
CIN -3.5 -110DraftKings
TB +3.5 -110DraftKings
ST Model
ST LAR -5.2 · mkt LAR -3.5
proj SF 21 · LAR 26
leans LAR -3.5
◆ Mid 0
LAR -3.5 -105DraftKings
SF +3.5 -115DraftKings
ST Model
ST CHI -1.3 · mkt CHI -2.5
proj CHI 23 · CAR 22
leans CAR +2.5
◆ Mid 0.5
CAR +2.5 -110DraftKings
CHI -2 -120BetUS
ST Model
ST MIN -1.1 · mkt MIN 0.0
proj GB 21 · MIN 22
leans MIN 0.0
◆ Mid 3
MIN +1.5 -120DraftKings
GB +1.5 -120BetMGM
ST Model
ST PHI -5.1 · mkt PHI -4.5
proj WAS 20 · PHI 25
leans PHI -4.5
◆ Mid 0.5
PHI -4 -110LowVig
WAS +4.5 -110DraftKings
ST Model
ST PIT -2.7 · mkt PIT -3.0
proj ATL 21 · PIT 24
leans ATL +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
PIT -2.5 -115DraftKings
ATL +3 -105BetMGM
ST Model
ST KC -2.8 · mkt KC -3.0
proj DEN 21 · KC 24
leans DEN +3.0
◆ Mid 0.5
KC -2.5 -115DraftKings
DEN +3 -115BetMGM
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.