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Betting Edge

2023 backtest — what the ST Model called vs what actually happened, and vs the closing line
Season202620252024202320222021
How to read this: Predictions use prior-season ratings only(no peeking at the season's own results), so this is an honest out-of-sample backtest. We beat a power rating but not the closing line — ATS is ~break-even — so the scorecard is about judging the model, not a profit record.
ST Model vs Market
Week 1 backtest · 16 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–756%
ATS vs close
10–663%
Model margin MAE
11.3
Market margin MAE
11.2
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Graded · Week 1 — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
BUF @ NYJFinal 16–22
ST Model
pred BUF 7.8 · actual NYJ 6
winner BUF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BUF -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
DET @ KCFinal 21–20
ST Model
pred KC 7.9 · actual DET 1
winner KC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned KC -4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.9 · mkt 5.0 · mkt closer
JAX @ INDFinal 31–21
ST Model
pred JAX 0.8 · actual JAX 10
winner JAX ✓
ATS vs close
leaned IND +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.2 · mkt 6.0 · mkt closer
LAR @ SEAFinal 30–13
ST Model
pred SEA 1.4 · actual LAR 17
winner SEA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LAR +4.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 18.4 · mkt 21.5 · closer
CIN @ CLEFinal 3–24
ST Model
pred CIN 3.8 · actual CLE 21
winner CIN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned CIN -1.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 22.0 · mkt closer
ARI @ WASFinal 16–20
ST Model
pred WAS 4.7 · actual WAS 4
winner WAS ✓
ATS vs close
leaned ARI +7.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.7 · mkt 3.0 · closer
GB @ CHIFinal 38–20
ST Model
pred GB 1.2 · actual GB 18
winner GB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned GB +1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.8 · mkt 19.0 · closer
CAR @ ATLFinal 10–24
ST Model
pred ATL 5.5 · actual ATL 14
winner ATL ✓
ATS vs close
leaned ATL -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.5 · mkt 10.5 · closer
MIA @ LACFinal 36–34
ST Model
pred LAC 1.5 · actual MIA 2
winner LAC ✗
ATS vs close
leaned MIA +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 5.0 · closer
DAL @ NYGFinal 40–0
ST Model
pred DAL 4.8 · actual DAL 40
winner DAL ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DAL -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 35.2 · mkt 36.5 · closer
LV @ DENFinal 17–16
ST Model
pred DEN 2.0 · actual LV 1
winner DEN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LV +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.0 · closer
TEN @ NOFinal 15–16
ST Model
pred NO 3.9 · actual NO 1
winner NO ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NO -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.9 · mkt 2.0 · mkt closer
TB @ MINFinal 20–17
ST Model
pred MIN 3.3 · actual TB 3
winner MIN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TB +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.3 · mkt 7.0 · closer
HOU @ BALFinal 9–25
ST Model
pred BAL 9.9 · actual BAL 16
winner BAL ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BAL -9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
PHI @ NEFinal 25–20
ST Model
pred PHI 3.2 · actual PHI 5
winner PHI ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NE +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.8 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
SF @ PITFinal 30–7
ST Model
pred SF 1.6 · actual SF 23
winner SF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SF -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 21.4 · mkt 21.5 · closer
Every game this week has been played.
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.