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Betting Edge

2025 backtest — what the ST Model called vs what actually happened, and vs the closing line
Season202620252024202320222021
How to read this: Predictions use prior-season ratings only(no peeking at the season's own results), so this is an honest out-of-sample backtest. We beat a power rating but not the closing line — ATS is ~break-even — so the scorecard is about judging the model, not a profit record.
ST Model vs Market
Week 1 backtest · 16 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
14–288%
ATS vs close
8–850%
Model margin MAE
6.0
Market margin MAE
5.9
→ market was closer (model can't beat the close ATS)
Graded · Week 1 — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
SF @ SEAFinal 17–13
ST Model
pred SEA 4.0 · actual SF 4
winner SEA ✗
ATS vs close
leaned SEA +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
CIN @ CLEFinal 17–16
ST Model
pred CIN 0.8 · actual CIN 1
winner CIN ✓
ATS vs close
leaned CLE +5.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 4.5 · closer
ARI @ NOFinal 20–13
ST Model
pred ARI 1.5 · actual ARI 7
winner ARI ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NO +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 5.5 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
LV @ NEFinal 20–13
ST Model
pred LV 1.9 · actual LV 7
winner LV ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LV +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 9.5 · closer
KC @ LACFinal 21–27
ST Model
pred LAC 0.8 · actual LAC 6
winner LAC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LAC +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.2 · mkt 9.0 · closer
DET @ GBFinal 13–27
ST Model
pred DET 1.3 · actual GB 14
winner DET ✗
ATS vs close
leaned DET +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.3 · mkt 12.5 · mkt closer
BAL @ BUFFinal 40–41
ST Model
pred BUF 1.2 · actual BUF 1
winner BUF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BUF +1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.2 · mkt 2.5 · closer
TEN @ DENFinal 12–20
ST Model
pred DEN 6.4 · actual DEN 8
winner DEN ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TEN +8.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.6 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
MIA @ INDFinal 8–33
ST Model
pred IND 0.2 · actual IND 25
winner IND ✓
ATS vs close
leaned MIA +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 24.8 · mkt 23.5 · mkt closer
PIT @ NYJFinal 34–32
ST Model
pred PIT 1.9 · actual PIT 2
winner PIT ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NYJ +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 1.0 · closer
NYG @ WASFinal 6–21
ST Model
pred WAS 7.0 · actual WAS 15
winner WAS ✓
ATS vs close
leaned WAS -6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 8.0 · mkt 9.0 · closer
MIN @ CHIFinal 27–24
ST Model
pred MIN 0.6 · actual MIN 3
winner MIN ✓
ATS vs close
leaned CHI +1.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.4 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
TB @ ATLFinal 23–20
ST Model
pred TB 2.0 · actual TB 3
winner TB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TB -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.0 · mkt 1.5 · closer
DAL @ PHIFinal 20–24
ST Model
pred PHI 8.9 · actual PHI 4
winner PHI ✓
ATS vs close
leaned PHI -8.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.9 · mkt 4.5 · mkt closer
CAR @ JAXFinal 10–26
ST Model
pred JAX 4.3 · actual JAX 16
winner JAX ✓
ATS vs close
leaned CAR +4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.7 · mkt 11.5 · mkt closer
HOU @ LARFinal 9–14
ST Model
pred LAR 3.3 · actual LAR 5
winner LAR ✓
ATS vs close
leaned HOU +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
Every game this week has been played.
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.