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Betting Edge

2022 backtest — what the ST Model called vs what actually happened, and vs the closing line
Season202620252024202320222021
How to read this: Predictions use prior-season ratings only(no peeking at the season's own results), so this is an honest out-of-sample backtest. We beat a power rating but not the closing line — ATS is ~break-even — so the scorecard is about judging the model, not a profit record.
ST Model vs Market
Week 1 backtest · 16 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
10–567%
ATS vs close
9–756%
Model margin MAE
8.8
Market margin MAE
9.1
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Graded · Week 1 — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
DEN @ SEAFinal 16–17
ST Model
pred SEA 4.5 · actual SEA 1
winner SEA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SEA +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 7.0 · closer
KC @ ARIFinal 44–21
ST Model
pred KC 1.0 · actual KC 23
winner KC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned ARI +6.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 22.0 · mkt 17.0 · mkt closer
NO @ ATLFinal 27–26
ST Model
pred NO 1.3 · actual NO 1
winner NO ✓
ATS vs close
leaned ATL +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.3 · mkt 5.0 · closer
SF @ CHIFinal 10–19
ST Model
pred SF 2.1 · actual CHI 9
winner SF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned CHI +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 15.5 · closer
NE @ MIAFinal 7–20
ST Model
pred NE 1.1 · actual MIA 13
winner NE ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NE +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 14.1 · mkt 10.0 · mkt closer
BUF @ LARFinal 31–10
ST Model
pred BUF 4.8 · actual BUF 21
winner BUF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BUF -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.2 · mkt 20.0 · closer
NYG @ TENFinal 21–20
ST Model
pred TEN 9.2 · actual NYG 1
winner TEN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TEN -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.2 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
JAX @ WASFinal 22–28
ST Model
pred WAS 6.6 · actual WAS 6
winner WAS ✓
ATS vs close
leaned WAS -3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 3.0 · closer
PIT @ CINFinal 23–20
ST Model
pred CIN 4.8 · actual PIT 3
winner CIN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned PIT +7.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.8 · mkt 10.5 · closer
TB @ DALFinal 19–3
ST Model
pred TB 0.1 · actual TB 16
winner TB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DAL +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.9 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
BAL @ NYJFinal 24–9
ST Model
pred BAL 4.2 · actual BAL 15
winner BAL ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NYJ +6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 10.8 · mkt 8.5 · mkt closer
GB @ MINFinal 7–23
ST Model
pred MIN 0.5 · actual MIN 16
winner MIN ✓
ATS vs close
leaned GB +2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 15.5 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
CLE @ CARFinal 26–24
ST Model
pred CAR 1.0 · actual CLE 2
winner CAR ✗
ATS vs close
leaned CLE +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 4.5 · closer
PHI @ DETFinal 38–35
ST Model
pred PHI 4.7 · actual PHI 3
winner PHI ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DET +6.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 1.7 · mkt 3.0 · closer
LV @ LACFinal 19–24
ST Model
pred LAC 4.2 · actual LAC 5
winner LAC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LAC -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.8 · mkt 1.5 · closer
IND @ HOUFinal 20–20
ST Model
pred IND 7.5 · actual tie
winner IND · tie
ATS vs close
leaned IND -7.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.5 · mkt 7.0 · mkt closer
Every game this week has been played.
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.