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Betting Edge

2021 backtest — what the ST Model called vs what actually happened, and vs the closing line
Season202620252024202320222021
How to read this: Predictions use prior-season ratings only(no peeking at the season's own results), so this is an honest out-of-sample backtest. We beat a power rating but not the closing line — ATS is ~break-even — so the scorecard is about judging the model, not a profit record.
ST Model vs Market
Week 1 backtest · 16 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
9–756%
ATS vs close
8–850%
Model margin MAE
12.0
Market margin MAE
12.4
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Graded · Week 1 — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
JAX @ HOUFinal 21–37
ST Model
pred HOU 4.1 · actual HOU 16
winner HOU ✓
ATS vs close
leaned HOU +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.9 · mkt 19.5 · closer
GB @ NOFinal 3–38
ST Model
pred NO 3.5 · actual NO 35
winner NO ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NO +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 31.5 · mkt 39.0 · closer
CHI @ LARFinal 14–34
ST Model
pred LAR 4.0 · actual LAR 20
winner LAR ✓
ATS vs close
leaned CHI +9.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 16.0 · mkt 10.5 · mkt closer
SF @ DETFinal 41–33
ST Model
pred SF 5.0 · actual SF 8
winner SF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DET +9.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.0 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
BAL @ LVFinal 27–33
ST Model
pred BAL 5.6 · actual LV 6
winner BAL ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BAL -3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.6 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
MIN @ CINFinal 24–27
ST Model
pred MIN 0.8 · actual CIN 3
winner MIN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned CIN +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 3.8 · mkt 6.0 · closer
CLE @ KCFinal 29–33
ST Model
pred KC 7.2 · actual KC 4
winner KC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned KC -5.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
MIA @ NEFinal 17–16
ST Model
pred NE 1.8 · actual MIA 1
winner NE ✗
ATS vs close
leaned MIA +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.8 · mkt 4.5 · closer
NYJ @ CARFinal 14–19
ST Model
pred CAR 1.9 · actual CAR 5
winner CAR ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NYJ +3.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.1 · mkt 1.5 · mkt closer
DAL @ TBFinal 29–31
ST Model
pred TB 8.6 · actual TB 2
winner TB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DAL +10.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 6.6 · mkt 8.0 · closer
LAC @ WASFinal 20–16
ST Model
pred WAS 1.1 · actual LAC 4
winner WAS ✗
ATS vs close
leaned LAC +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.1 · mkt 6.5 · closer
DEN @ NYGFinal 27–13
ST Model
pred DEN 1.6 · actual DEN 14
winner DEN ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NYG +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 12.4 · mkt 11.0 · mkt closer
PHI @ ATLFinal 32–6
ST Model
pred ATL 2.2 · actual PHI 26
winner ATL ✗
ATS vs close
leaned PHI +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.2 · mkt 29.5 · closer
ARI @ TENFinal 38–13
ST Model
pred TEN 3.6 · actual ARI 25
winner TEN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned TEN -2.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 28.6 · mkt 27.5 · mkt closer
SEA @ INDFinal 28–16
ST Model
pred SEA 2.2 · actual SEA 12
winner SEA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned IND +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.8 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
PIT @ BUFFinal 23–16
ST Model
pred BUF 6.8 · actual PIT 7
winner BUF ✗
ATS vs close
leaned BUF -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 13.8 · mkt 13.5 · mkt closer
Every game this week has been played.
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.