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Betting Edge

2024 backtest — what the ST Model called vs what actually happened, and vs the closing line
Season202620252024202320222021
How to read this: Predictions use prior-season ratings only(no peeking at the season's own results), so this is an honest out-of-sample backtest. We beat a power rating but not the closing line — ATS is ~break-even — so the scorecard is about judging the model, not a profit record.
ST Model vs Market
Week 1 backtest · 16 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
14–288%
ATS vs close
10–663%
Model margin MAE
8.1
Market margin MAE
9.0
→ model's margins were closer than the market
Graded · Week 1 — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
NYJ @ SFFinal 19–32
ST Model
pred SF 12.9 · actual SF 13
winner SF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned SF -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.1 · mkt 9.5 · closer
HOU @ INDFinal 29–27
ST Model
pred IND 3.4 · actual HOU 2
winner IND ✗
ATS vs close
leaned IND +3.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 5.4 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
DAL @ CLEFinal 33–17
ST Model
pred DAL 2.9 · actual DAL 16
winner DAL ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DAL +2.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.1 · mkt 18.5 · closer
CAR @ NOFinal 10–47
ST Model
pred NO 8.3 · actual NO 37
winner NO ✓
ATS vs close
leaned NO -3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 28.7 · mkt 33.5 · closer
PIT @ ATLFinal 18–10
ST Model
pred PIT 0.4 · actual PIT 8
winner PIT ✓
ATS vs close
leaned PIT +4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 7.6 · mkt 12.0 · closer
MIN @ NYGFinal 28–6
ST Model
pred MIN 5.1 · actual MIN 22
winner MIN ✓
ATS vs close
leaned MIN -1.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 16.9 · mkt 21.0 · closer
DEN @ SEAFinal 20–26
ST Model
pred SEA 3.3 · actual SEA 6
winner SEA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned DEN +6.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 2.7 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
BAL @ KCFinal 20–27
ST Model
pred KC 0.3 · actual KC 7
winner KC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BAL +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 6.7 · mkt 4.0 · mkt closer
ARI @ BUFFinal 28–34
ST Model
pred BUF 9.2 · actual BUF 6
winner BUF ✓
ATS vs close
leaned BUF -6.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.2 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
LV @ LACFinal 10–22
ST Model
pred LAC 0.9 · actual LAC 12
winner LAC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LV +3.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 9.0 · mkt closer
WAS @ TBFinal 20–37
ST Model
pred TB 5.9 · actual TB 17
winner TB ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TB -4.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 11.1 · mkt 13.0 · closer
LAR @ DETFinal 20–26
ST Model
pred DET 3.7 · actual DET 6
winner DET ✓
ATS vs close
leaned LAR +5.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 2.3 · mkt 1.0 · mkt closer
JAX @ MIAFinal 17–20
ST Model
pred MIA 2.4 · actual MIA 3
winner MIA ✓
ATS vs close
leaned JAX +3.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 0.6 · mkt 0.5 · mkt closer
GB @ PHIFinal 29–34
ST Model
pred PHI 1.0 · actual PHI 5
winner PHI ✓
ATS vs close
leaned GB +2.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 4.0 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
NE @ CINFinal 16–10
ST Model
pred CIN 7.0 · actual NE 6
winner CIN ✗
ATS vs close
leaned NE +8.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 13.0 · mkt 14.0 · closer
TEN @ CHIFinal 17–24
ST Model
pred CHI 3.7 · actual CHI 7
winner CHI ✓
ATS vs close
leaned TEN +4.0Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.3 · mkt 3.0 · mkt closer
Every game this week has been played.
Informational only. Model projections and posted prices are shared for analysis and entertainment — not betting advice, picks for profit, or any guarantee of outcome. Lines move; confirm at the book before betting. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.