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Player Props

2026 · week 14
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
540 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs TEN12/13pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Matthew StaffordQBLAR@ SF12/13pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
3Patrick MahomesQBKC@ CIN12/13pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
4Brock PurdyQBSFvs LAR12/13pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
5Drake MayeQBNEvs MIN12/11pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
6Bo NixQBDEN@ NYJ12/13pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
7Joe BurrowQBCINvs KC12/13pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Trevor LawrenceQBJAXvs PIT12/15pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
9Caleb WilliamsQBCHI@ MIA12/13pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
10Baker MayfieldQBTB@ BAL12/13pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Josh AllenQBBUF@ GB12/14pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Justin HerbertQBLAC@ LV12/13pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs NYG12/13pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
14Jordan LoveQBGBvs BUF12/14pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
15Geno SmithQBNYJvs DEN12/13pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
16Tua TagovailoaQBATL@ CLE12/13pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17C.J. StroudQBHOU@ WAS12/13pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18Lamar JacksonQBBALvs TB12/13pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
19Daniel JonesQBIND@ PHI12/13pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ JAX12/15pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
21Tyler ShoughQBNO@ CAR12/13pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
22Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs IND12/13pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Kirk CousinsQBLVvs LAC12/13pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Kyler MurrayQBMIN@ NE12/11pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
25Jayden DanielsQBWASvs HOU12/13pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
26Cam WardQBTEN@ DET12/13pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
27Shedeur SandersQBCLEvs ATL12/13pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
28Jaxson DartQBNYG@ SEA12/13pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
29Bryce YoungQBCARvs NO12/13pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
30Quinn EwersQBMIAvs CHI12/13pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
31Puka NacuaWRLAR@ SF12/13rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
32Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ PHI12/13rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
33Nico CollinsWRHOU@ WAS12/13rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
34Derrick HenryRBBALvs TB12/13rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs NYG12/13rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINvs KC12/13rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
37Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs TEN12/13rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
38James CookRBBUF@ GB12/14rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
39Bijan RobinsonRBATL@ CLE12/13rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
40Justin JeffersonWRMIN@ NE12/11rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
41De'Von AchaneRBMIAvs CHI12/13rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
42Tetairoa McMillanWRCARvs NO12/13rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
43Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs TEN12/13rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
44Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs TEN12/13rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
45Zay FlowersWRBALvs TB12/13rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
46Alec PierceWRIND@ PHI12/13rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
47Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs IND12/13rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
48A.J. BrownWRNEvs MIN12/11rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
49Drake LondonWRATL@ CLE12/13rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
50Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ BAL12/13rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
51Chris OlaveWRNO@ CAR12/13rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
52D'Andre SwiftRBCHI@ MIA12/13rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
53J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ NYJ12/13rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
54Malik NabersWRNYG@ SEA12/13rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
55Breece HallRBNYJvs DEN12/13rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
56Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXvs PIT12/15rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
57Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ NYJ12/13rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
58Chase BrownRBCINvs KC12/13rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
59Ashton JeantyRBLVvs LAC12/13rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
60Kyren WilliamsRBLAR@ SF12/13rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
61Josh JacobsRBGBvs BUF12/14rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
62Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ LV12/13rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
63DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs IND12/13rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
64Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ CIN12/13rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
65Tony PollardRBTEN@ DET12/13rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
66DK MetcalfWRPIT@ JAX12/15rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
67Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWASvs HOU12/13rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
68Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ JAX12/15rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
69Luther BurdenWRCHI@ MIA12/13rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
70Quinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs ATL12/13rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
71Colston LovelandTECHI@ MIA12/13rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
72Rashee RiceWRKC@ CIN12/13rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
73Tee HigginsWRCINvs KC12/13rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
74Travis EtienneRBNO@ CAR12/13rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
75Bucky IrvingRBTB@ BAL12/13rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
76Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ DET12/13rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
77Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ LV12/13rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
78George KittleTESFvs LAR12/13rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
79Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs NYG12/13rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
80Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs LAR12/13rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
81Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ LV12/13rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
82Rome OdunzeWRCHI@ MIA12/13rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
83Jakobi MeyersWRJAXvs PIT12/15rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
84Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ NYJ12/13rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
85Travis KelceTEKC@ CIN12/13rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
86Michael PittmanWRPIT@ JAX12/15rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
87Rico DowdleRBPIT@ JAX12/15rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
88Brock BowersTELVvs LAC12/13rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
89Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ LV12/13rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
90Troy FranklinWRDEN@ NYJ12/13rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
91Chuba HubbardRBCARvs NO12/13rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
92Garrett WilsonWRNYJvs DEN12/13rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
93Tank DellWRHOU@ WAS12/13rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
94Harold FanninTECLEvs ATL12/13rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
95Tyler WarrenTEIND@ PHI12/13rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
96D.J. MooreWRBUF@ GB12/14rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
97David MontgomeryRBHOU@ WAS12/13rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
98Juwan JohnsonTENO@ CAR12/13rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
99Christian WatsonWRGBvs BUF12/14rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
100Parker WashingtonWRJAXvs PIT12/15rec yds≈base44.2
30+
59%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
28%
100 of 540
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.