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Player Props

2026 · week 2
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
576 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDET@ BUF9/18pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs WAS9/20pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLARvs NYG9/22pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKCvs IND9/21pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSFvs MIA9/20pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNEvs PIT9/20pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCIN@ HOU9/20pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Bo NixQBDENvs JAX9/20pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ DEN9/20pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs MIN9/20pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTBvs CLE9/20pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUFvs DET9/18pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLACvs LV9/20pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEA@ ARI9/20pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ NYJ9/20pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Geno SmithQBNYJvs GB9/20pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs CAR9/20pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18C.J. StroudQBHOUvs CIN9/20pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
19Lamar JacksonQBBALvs NO9/20pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Daniel JonesQBIND@ KC9/21pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
21Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ NE9/20pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
22Tyler ShoughQBNO@ BAL9/20pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Jalen HurtsQBPHI@ TEN9/20pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Kirk CousinsQBLV@ LAC9/20pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
25Jacoby BrissettQBARIvs SEA9/20pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
26Kyler MurrayQBMIN@ CHI9/20pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
27Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ DAL9/20pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
28Cam WardQBTENvs PHI9/20pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
29Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ TB9/20pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
30Jaxson DartQBNYG@ LAR9/22pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
31Bryce YoungQBCAR@ ATL9/20pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
32Quinn EwersQBMIA@ SF9/20pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
33Puka NacuaWRLARvs NYG9/22rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
34Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ KC9/21rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Nico CollinsWRHOUvs CIN9/20rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36Derrick HenryRBBALvs NO9/20rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
37Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA@ ARI9/20rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
38George PickensWRDALvs WAS9/20rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
39Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ HOU9/20rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
40Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET@ BUF9/18rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
41James CookRBBUFvs DET9/18rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
42Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs CAR9/20rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
43Justin JeffersonWRMIN@ CHI9/20rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
44Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ ATL9/20rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
45De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ SF9/20rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
46Jameson WilliamsWRDET@ BUF9/18rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
47Jahmyr GibbsRBDET@ BUF9/18rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
48CeeDee LambWRDALvs WAS9/20rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
49Zay FlowersWRBALvs NO9/20rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
50Alec PierceWRIND@ KC9/21rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
51Saquon BarkleyRBPHI@ TEN9/20rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
52A.J. BrownWRNEvs PIT9/20rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
53Drake LondonWRATLvs CAR9/20rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
54Emeka EgbukaWRTBvs CLE9/20rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
55Chris OlaveWRNO@ BAL9/20rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
56D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs MIN9/20rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
57J.K. DobbinsRBDENvs JAX9/20rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
58Malik NabersWRNYG@ LAR9/22rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
59Breece HallRBNYJvs GB9/20rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
60Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ DEN9/20rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
61Courtland SuttonWRDENvs JAX9/20rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
62Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs WAS9/20rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
63Chase BrownRBCIN@ HOU9/20rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
64Ashton JeantyRBLV@ LAC9/20rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
65Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs NYG9/22rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
66Josh JacobsRBGB@ NYJ9/20rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
67Ladd McConkeyWRLACvs LV9/20rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
68DeVonta SmithWRPHI@ TEN9/20rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
69Kenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs IND9/21rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
70Trey McBrideTEARIvs SEA9/20rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
71Tony PollardRBTENvs PHI9/20rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
72DK MetcalfWRPIT@ NE9/20rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
73Michael WilsonWRARIvs SEA9/20rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
74Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ DAL9/20rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
75Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ NE9/20rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
76Luther BurdenWRCHIvs MIN9/20rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
77Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ TB9/20rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
78Colston LovelandTECHIvs MIN9/20rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
79Rashee RiceWRKCvs IND9/21rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
80Tee HigginsWRCIN@ HOU9/20rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
81Travis EtienneRBNO@ BAL9/20rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Bucky IrvingRBTBvs CLE9/20rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
83Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENvs PHI9/20rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
84Quentin JohnstonWRLACvs LV9/20rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
85George KittleTESFvs MIA9/20rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
86Zach CharbonnetRBSEA@ ARI9/20rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
87Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs MIA9/20rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
88Oronde GadsdenTELACvs LV9/20rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
89Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs MIN9/20rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
90Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ DEN9/20rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
91Jaylen WaddleWRDENvs JAX9/20rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
92Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs SEA9/20rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
93Jeremiyah LoveRBARIvs SEA9/20rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
94Travis KelceTEKCvs IND9/21rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
95Michael PittmanWRPIT@ NE9/20rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
96Rico DowdleRBPIT@ NE9/20rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
97Brock BowersTELV@ LAC9/20rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
98Omarion HamptonRBLACvs LV9/20rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
99Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ ATL9/20rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
100Troy FranklinWRDENvs JAX9/20rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
100 of 576
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.