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Player Props

2026 · week 11
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
468 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs TB11/22pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs TEN11/22pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Patrick MahomesQBKCvs ARI11/22pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
4Brock PurdyQBSFvs MIN11/23pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
5Bo NixQBDENvs LV11/22pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
6Joe BurrowQBCIN@ WAS11/24pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
7Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ NYG11/22pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
8Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs NO11/22pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
9Baker MayfieldQBTB@ DET11/22pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
10Josh AllenQBBUFvs MIA11/22pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Justin HerbertQBLACvs NYJ11/22pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Geno SmithQBNYJ@ LAC11/22pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
13C.J. StroudQBHOUvs IND11/20pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
14Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ CAR11/22pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
15Daniel JonesQBIND@ HOU11/20pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
16Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ PHI11/22pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
17Tyler ShoughQBNO@ CHI11/22pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
18Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs PIT11/22pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
19Kirk CousinsQBLV@ DEN11/22pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
20Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ KC11/22pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
21Kyler MurrayQBMIN@ SF11/23pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
22Jayden DanielsQBWASvs CIN11/24pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
23Cam WardQBTEN@ DAL11/22pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
24Jaxson DartQBNYGvs JAX11/22pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
25Bryce YoungQBCARvs BAL11/22pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
26Quinn EwersQBMIA@ BUF11/22pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
27Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ HOU11/20rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
28Nico CollinsWRHOUvs IND11/20rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
29Derrick HenryRBBAL@ CAR11/22rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
30George PickensWRDALvs TEN11/22rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
31Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ WAS11/24rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
32Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs TB11/22rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
33James CookRBBUFvs MIA11/22rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
34Justin JeffersonWRMIN@ SF11/23rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
35Tetairoa McMillanWRCARvs BAL11/22rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
36De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ BUF11/22rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
37Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs TB11/22rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
38Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs TB11/22rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
39CeeDee LambWRDALvs TEN11/22rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
40Zay FlowersWRBAL@ CAR11/22rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
41Alec PierceWRIND@ HOU11/20rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
42Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs PIT11/22rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
43Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ DET11/22rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
44Chris OlaveWRNO@ CHI11/22rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
45D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NO11/22rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
46J.K. DobbinsRBDENvs LV11/22rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
47Malik NabersWRNYGvs JAX11/22rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
48Breece HallRBNYJ@ LAC11/22rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
49Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ NYG11/22rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
50Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs TEN11/22rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
51Courtland SuttonWRDENvs LV11/22rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
52Chase BrownRBCIN@ WAS11/24rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
53Ashton JeantyRBLV@ DEN11/22rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
54Ladd McConkeyWRLACvs NYJ11/22rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
55DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs PIT11/22rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
56Kenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs ARI11/22rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
57Trey McBrideTEARI@ KC11/22rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
58Tony PollardRBTEN@ DAL11/22rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
59DK MetcalfWRPIT@ PHI11/22rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
60Michael WilsonWRARI@ KC11/22rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
61Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWASvs CIN11/24rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
62Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ PHI11/22rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
63Luther BurdenWRCHIvs NO11/22rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
64Colston LovelandTECHIvs NO11/22rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
65Rashee RiceWRKCvs ARI11/22rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
66Tee HigginsWRCIN@ WAS11/24rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
67Travis EtienneRBNO@ CHI11/22rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
68Bucky IrvingRBTB@ DET11/22rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
69Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ DAL11/22rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
70Quentin JohnstonWRLACvs NYJ11/22rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
71George KittleTESFvs MIN11/23rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
72Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs MIN11/23rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
73Oronde GadsdenTELACvs NYJ11/22rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
74Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ NYG11/22rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
75Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs NO11/22rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
76Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ KC11/22rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
77Jaylen WaddleWRDENvs LV11/22rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
78Travis KelceTEKCvs ARI11/22rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
79Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ KC11/22rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
80Michael PittmanWRPIT@ PHI11/22rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
81Rico DowdleRBPIT@ PHI11/22rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
82Brock BowersTELV@ DEN11/22rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
83Omarion HamptonRBLACvs NYJ11/22rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
84Chuba HubbardRBCARvs BAL11/22rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
85Troy FranklinWRDENvs LV11/22rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
86Garrett WilsonWRNYJ@ LAC11/22rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
87Tank DellWRHOUvs IND11/20rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
88Tyler WarrenTEIND@ HOU11/20rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
89D.J. MooreWRBUFvs MIA11/22rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
90David MontgomeryRBHOUvs IND11/20rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
91Juwan JohnsonTENO@ CHI11/22rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
92Parker WashingtonWRJAX@ NYG11/22rec yds≈base44.2
30+
59%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
28%
93Kyle MonangaiRBCHIvs NO11/22rush yds≈base44.1
30+
65%
40+
52%
50+
42%
60+
33%
94Khalil ShakirWRBUFvs MIA11/22rec yds≈base43.9
30+
59%
40+
47%
50+
37%
60+
28%
95Cam SkatteboRBNYGvs JAX11/22rush yds≈base43.6
30+
64%
40+
51%
50+
41%
60+
32%
96Ricky PearsallWRSFvs MIN11/23rec yds≈base43.4
30+
58%
40+
47%
50+
36%
60+
28%
97Jaxson DartQBNYGvs JAX11/22rush yds43.3
30+
60%
40+
46%
50+
32%
60+
23%
98Jordan AddisonWRMIN@ SF11/23rec yds≈base42.1
30+
56%
40+
45%
50+
35%
60+
26%
99Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ CAR11/22rush yds41.7
30+
59%
40+
45%
50+
31%
60+
22%
100Carnell TateWRTEN@ DAL11/22rec yds≈base41.7
30+
55%
40+
44%
50+
34%
60+
26%
100 of 468
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.