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Player Props

2026 · week 13
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
504 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDET@ ATL12/6pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDAL@ SEA12/8pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLARvs KC12/4pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKC@ LAR12/4pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSF@ NYG12/6pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNEvs BUF12/6pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCIN@ CLE12/6pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Bo NixQBDENvs MIA12/6pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ CHI12/6pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs JAX12/6pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTBvs LAC12/6pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUF@ NE12/6pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLAC@ TB12/6pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs DAL12/8pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ NO12/6pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs DET12/6pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17C.J. StroudQBHOU@ PIT12/7pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18Aaron RodgersQBPITvs HOU12/7pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
19Tyler ShoughQBNOvs GB12/6pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
20Jalen HurtsQBPHI@ ARI12/6pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
21Jacoby BrissettQBARIvs PHI12/6pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
22Kyler MurrayQBMINvs CAR12/6pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
23Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ TEN12/6pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
24Cam WardQBTENvs WAS12/6pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
25Shedeur SandersQBCLEvs CIN12/6pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
26Jaxson DartQBNYGvs SF12/6pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
27Bryce YoungQBCAR@ MIN12/6pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
28Quinn EwersQBMIA@ DEN12/6pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
29Puka NacuaWRLARvs KC12/4rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
30Nico CollinsWRHOU@ PIT12/7rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
31Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs DAL12/8rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
32George PickensWRDAL@ SEA12/8rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
33Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ CLE12/6rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
34Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET@ ATL12/6rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
35James CookRBBUF@ NE12/6rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
36Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs DET12/6rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
37Justin JeffersonWRMINvs CAR12/6rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
38De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ DEN12/6rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
39Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ MIN12/6rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
40Jameson WilliamsWRDET@ ATL12/6rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
41Jahmyr GibbsRBDET@ ATL12/6rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
42CeeDee LambWRDAL@ SEA12/8rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
43Saquon BarkleyRBPHI@ ARI12/6rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
44A.J. BrownWRNEvs BUF12/6rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
45Drake LondonWRATLvs DET12/6rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
46Emeka EgbukaWRTBvs LAC12/6rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
47Chris OlaveWRNOvs GB12/6rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
48D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs JAX12/6rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
49J.K. DobbinsRBDENvs MIA12/6rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
50Malik NabersWRNYGvs SF12/6rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
51Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ CHI12/6rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
52Courtland SuttonWRDENvs MIA12/6rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
53Javonte WilliamsRBDAL@ SEA12/8rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
54Chase BrownRBCIN@ CLE12/6rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
55Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs KC12/4rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
56Josh JacobsRBGB@ NO12/6rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
57Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ TB12/6rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
58DeVonta SmithWRPHI@ ARI12/6rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
59Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ LAR12/4rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
60Trey McBrideTEARIvs PHI12/6rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
61Tony PollardRBTENvs WAS12/6rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
62DK MetcalfWRPITvs HOU12/7rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
63Michael WilsonWRARIvs PHI12/6rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
64Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ TEN12/6rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
65Jaylen WarrenRBPITvs HOU12/7rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
66Luther BurdenWRCHIvs JAX12/6rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
67Quinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs CIN12/6rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
68Colston LovelandTECHIvs JAX12/6rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
69Rashee RiceWRKC@ LAR12/4rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
70Tee HigginsWRCIN@ CLE12/6rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
71Travis EtienneRBNOvs GB12/6rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
72Bucky IrvingRBTBvs LAC12/6rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
73Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENvs WAS12/6rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
74Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ TB12/6rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
75George KittleTESF@ NYG12/6rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
76Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs DAL12/8rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
77Christian McCaffreyRBSF@ NYG12/6rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
78Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ TB12/6rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
79Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs JAX12/6rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
80Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ CHI12/6rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
81Jaylen WaddleWRDENvs MIA12/6rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
82Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs PHI12/6rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
83Travis KelceTEKC@ LAR12/4rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
84Jeremiyah LoveRBARIvs PHI12/6rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
85Michael PittmanWRPITvs HOU12/7rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
86Rico DowdleRBPITvs HOU12/7rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
87Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ TB12/6rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
88Troy FranklinWRDENvs MIA12/6rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
89Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ MIN12/6rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
90Tank DellWRHOU@ PIT12/7rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
91Harold FanninTECLEvs CIN12/6rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
92D.J. MooreWRBUF@ NE12/6rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
93David MontgomeryRBHOU@ PIT12/7rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
94Juwan JohnsonTENOvs GB12/6rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
95Christian WatsonWRGB@ NO12/6rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
96Parker WashingtonWRJAX@ CHI12/6rec yds≈base44.2
30+
59%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
28%
97Kyle MonangaiRBCHIvs JAX12/6rush yds≈base44.1
30+
65%
40+
52%
50+
42%
60+
33%
98Khalil ShakirWRBUF@ NE12/6rec yds≈base43.9
30+
59%
40+
47%
50+
37%
60+
28%
99Kyle PittsTEATLvs DET12/6rec yds≈base43.7
30+
61%
40+
47%
50+
34%
60+
25%
100Cam SkatteboRBNYGvs SF12/6rush yds≈base43.6
30+
64%
40+
51%
50+
41%
60+
32%
100 of 504
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.