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Player Props

2026 · week 6
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
504 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Dak PrescottQBDAL@ GB10/19pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
2Matthew StaffordQBLARvs ARI10/18pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
3Patrick MahomesQBKCvs LAC10/18pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
4Brock PurdyQBSFvs WAS10/20pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
5Drake MayeQBNEvs NYJ10/18pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
6Bo NixQBDENvs SEA10/16pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
7Trevor LawrenceQBJAXvs HOU10/18pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
8Caleb WilliamsQBCHI@ ATL10/18pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
9Baker MayfieldQBTBvs PIT10/18pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
10Josh AllenQBBUF@ LV10/18pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Justin HerbertQBLAC@ KC10/18pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Sam DarnoldQBSEA@ DEN10/16pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
13Jordan LoveQBGBvs DAL10/19pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
14Geno SmithQBNYJ@ NE10/18pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
15Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs CHI10/18pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
16C.J. StroudQBHOU@ JAX10/18pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ CLE10/18pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
18Daniel JonesQBINDvs TEN10/18pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
19Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ TB10/18pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
20Tyler ShoughQBNO@ NYG10/18pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
21Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs CAR10/18pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
22Kirk CousinsQBLVvs BUF10/18pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ LAR10/18pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
24Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ SF10/20pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
25Cam WardQBTEN@ IND10/18pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
26Shedeur SandersQBCLEvs BAL10/18pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
27Jaxson DartQBNYGvs NO10/18pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
28Bryce YoungQBCAR@ PHI10/18pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
29Puka NacuaWRLARvs ARI10/18rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
30Jonathan TaylorRBINDvs TEN10/18rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
31Nico CollinsWRHOU@ JAX10/18rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
32Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA@ DEN10/16rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
33Derrick HenryRBBAL@ CLE10/18rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
34George PickensWRDAL@ GB10/19rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
35James CookRBBUF@ LV10/18rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
36Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs CHI10/18rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
37Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ PHI10/18rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
38CeeDee LambWRDAL@ GB10/19rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
39Zay FlowersWRBAL@ CLE10/18rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
40Alec PierceWRINDvs TEN10/18rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
41Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs CAR10/18rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
42A.J. BrownWRNEvs NYJ10/18rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
43Drake LondonWRATLvs CHI10/18rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
44Emeka EgbukaWRTBvs PIT10/18rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
45Chris OlaveWRNO@ NYG10/18rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
46D'Andre SwiftRBCHI@ ATL10/18rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
47J.K. DobbinsRBDENvs SEA10/16rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
48Malik NabersWRNYGvs NO10/18rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
49Breece HallRBNYJ@ NE10/18rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
50Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXvs HOU10/18rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
51Courtland SuttonWRDENvs SEA10/16rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
52Javonte WilliamsRBDAL@ GB10/19rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
53Ashton JeantyRBLVvs BUF10/18rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
54Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs ARI10/18rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
55Josh JacobsRBGBvs DAL10/19rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
56Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ KC10/18rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
57DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs CAR10/18rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
58Kenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs LAC10/18rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
59Trey McBrideTEARI@ LAR10/18rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
60Tony PollardRBTEN@ IND10/18rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
61DK MetcalfWRPIT@ TB10/18rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
62Michael WilsonWRARI@ LAR10/18rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
63Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ SF10/20rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
64Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ TB10/18rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
65Luther BurdenWRCHI@ ATL10/18rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
66Quinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs BAL10/18rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
67Colston LovelandTECHI@ ATL10/18rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
68Rashee RiceWRKCvs LAC10/18rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
69Travis EtienneRBNO@ NYG10/18rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
70Bucky IrvingRBTBvs PIT10/18rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
71Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ IND10/18rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
72Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ KC10/18rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
73George KittleTESFvs WAS10/20rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
74Zach CharbonnetRBSEA@ DEN10/16rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
75Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs WAS10/20rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
76Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ KC10/18rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
77Jakobi MeyersWRJAXvs HOU10/18rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
78Rome OdunzeWRCHI@ ATL10/18rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
79Jaylen WaddleWRDENvs SEA10/16rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
80Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ LAR10/18rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
81Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ LAR10/18rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
82Travis KelceTEKCvs LAC10/18rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
83Michael PittmanWRPIT@ TB10/18rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
84Rico DowdleRBPIT@ TB10/18rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
85Brock BowersTELVvs BUF10/18rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
86Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ KC10/18rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
87Troy FranklinWRDENvs SEA10/16rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
88Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ PHI10/18rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
89Garrett WilsonWRNYJ@ NE10/18rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
90Tank DellWRHOU@ JAX10/18rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
91Harold FanninTECLEvs BAL10/18rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
92Tyler WarrenTEINDvs TEN10/18rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
93D.J. MooreWRBUF@ LV10/18rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
94David MontgomeryRBHOU@ JAX10/18rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
95Juwan JohnsonTENO@ NYG10/18rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
96Christian WatsonWRGBvs DAL10/19rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
97Parker WashingtonWRJAXvs HOU10/18rec yds≈base44.2
30+
59%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
28%
98Kyle MonangaiRBCHI@ ATL10/18rush yds≈base44.1
30+
65%
40+
52%
50+
42%
60+
33%
99Khalil ShakirWRBUF@ LV10/18rec yds≈base43.9
30+
59%
40+
47%
50+
37%
60+
28%
100Kyle PittsTEATLvs CHI10/18rec yds≈base43.7
30+
61%
40+
47%
50+
34%
60+
25%
100 of 504
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.