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Player Props

2026 · week 16
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
576 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs NYG12/29pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs JAX12/28pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLAR@ SEA12/26pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKCvs SF12/27pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSF@ KC12/27pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNE@ NYJ12/27pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Bo NixQBDENvs BUF12/25pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Joe BurrowQBCIN@ IND12/27pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ DAL12/28pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs GB12/25pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTB@ ATL12/27pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUF@ DEN12/25pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLAC@ MIA12/27pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs LAR12/26pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ CHI12/25pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Geno SmithQBNYJvs NE12/27pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs TB12/27pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18C.J. StroudQBHOU@ PHI12/25pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
19Lamar JacksonQBBALvs CLE12/27pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Daniel JonesQBINDvs CIN12/27pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
21Aaron RodgersQBPITvs CAR12/27pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
22Tyler ShoughQBNOvs ARI12/27pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs HOU12/25pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Kirk CousinsQBLVvs TEN12/27pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
25Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ NO12/27pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
26Kyler MurrayQBMINvs WAS12/27pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
27Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ MIN12/27pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
28Cam WardQBTEN@ LV12/27pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
29Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ BAL12/27pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
30Jaxson DartQBNYG@ DET12/29pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
31Bryce YoungQBCAR@ PIT12/27pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
32Quinn EwersQBMIAvs LAC12/27pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
33Puka NacuaWRLAR@ SEA12/26rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
34Jonathan TaylorRBINDvs CIN12/27rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Nico CollinsWRHOU@ PHI12/25rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs LAR12/26rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
37Derrick HenryRBBALvs CLE12/27rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
38George PickensWRDALvs JAX12/28rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
39Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ IND12/27rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
40Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs NYG12/29rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
41James CookRBBUF@ DEN12/25rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
42Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs TB12/27rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
43Justin JeffersonWRMINvs WAS12/27rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
44Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ PIT12/27rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
45De'Von AchaneRBMIAvs LAC12/27rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
46Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs NYG12/29rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
47CeeDee LambWRDALvs JAX12/28rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
48Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs NYG12/29rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
49Zay FlowersWRBALvs CLE12/27rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
50Alec PierceWRINDvs CIN12/27rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
51Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs HOU12/25rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
52A.J. BrownWRNE@ NYJ12/27rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
53Drake LondonWRATLvs TB12/27rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
54Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ ATL12/27rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
55Chris OlaveWRNOvs ARI12/27rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
56D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs GB12/25rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
57J.K. DobbinsRBDENvs BUF12/25rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
58Malik NabersWRNYG@ DET12/29rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
59Breece HallRBNYJvs NE12/27rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
60Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ DAL12/28rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
61Courtland SuttonWRDENvs BUF12/25rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
62Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs JAX12/28rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
63Chase BrownRBCIN@ IND12/27rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
64Ashton JeantyRBLVvs TEN12/27rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
65Kyren WilliamsRBLAR@ SEA12/26rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
66Josh JacobsRBGB@ CHI12/25rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
67Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ MIA12/27rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
68DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs HOU12/25rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
69Kenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs SF12/27rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
70Trey McBrideTEARI@ NO12/27rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
71Tony PollardRBTEN@ LV12/27rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
72DK MetcalfWRPITvs CAR12/27rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
73Michael WilsonWRARI@ NO12/27rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
74Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ MIN12/27rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
75Jaylen WarrenRBPITvs CAR12/27rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
76Luther BurdenWRCHIvs GB12/25rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
77Colston LovelandTECHIvs GB12/25rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
78Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ BAL12/27rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
79Rashee RiceWRKCvs SF12/27rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
80Tee HigginsWRCIN@ IND12/27rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
81Travis EtienneRBNOvs ARI12/27rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Bucky IrvingRBTB@ ATL12/27rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
83Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ LV12/27rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
84Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ MIA12/27rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
85George KittleTESF@ KC12/27rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
86Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs LAR12/26rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
87Christian McCaffreyRBSF@ KC12/27rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
88Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ MIA12/27rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
89Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs GB12/25rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
90Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ DAL12/28rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
91Jaylen WaddleWRDENvs BUF12/25rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
92Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ NO12/27rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
93Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ NO12/27rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
94Travis KelceTEKCvs SF12/27rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
95Michael PittmanWRPITvs CAR12/27rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
96Rico DowdleRBPITvs CAR12/27rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
97Brock BowersTELVvs TEN12/27rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
98Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ MIA12/27rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
99Troy FranklinWRDENvs BUF12/25rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
100Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ PIT12/27rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
100 of 576
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.