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Player Props

2026 · week 12
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
576 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs CHI11/26pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs PHI11/26pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLARvs GB11/26pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKC@ BUF11/27pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSFvs SEA11/29pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNE@ LAC11/30pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Bo NixQBDEN@ PIT11/27pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Joe BurrowQBCINvs NO11/29pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAXvs TEN11/29pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHI@ DET11/26pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTBvs CAR12/1pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUFvs KC11/27pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLACvs NE11/30pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEA@ SF11/29pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ LAR11/26pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Geno SmithQBNYJ@ MIA11/29pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Tua TagovailoaQBATL@ MIN11/29pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18C.J. StroudQBHOUvs BAL11/29pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
19Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ HOU11/29pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Daniel JonesQBINDvs NYG11/29pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
21Aaron RodgersQBPITvs DEN11/27pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
22Tyler ShoughQBNO@ CIN11/29pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Jalen HurtsQBPHI@ DAL11/26pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Kirk CousinsQBLV@ CLE11/29pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
25Jacoby BrissettQBARIvs WAS11/29pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
26Kyler MurrayQBMINvs ATL11/29pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
27Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ ARI11/29pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
28Cam WardQBTEN@ JAX11/29pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
29Shedeur SandersQBCLEvs LV11/29pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
30Jaxson DartQBNYG@ IND11/29pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
31Bryce YoungQBCAR@ TB12/1pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
32Quinn EwersQBMIAvs NYJ11/29pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
33Puka NacuaWRLARvs GB11/26rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
34Jonathan TaylorRBINDvs NYG11/29rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Nico CollinsWRHOUvs BAL11/29rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36Derrick HenryRBBAL@ HOU11/29rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
37Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA@ SF11/29rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
38George PickensWRDALvs PHI11/26rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
39Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINvs NO11/29rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
40Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs CHI11/26rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
41James CookRBBUFvs KC11/27rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
42Bijan RobinsonRBATL@ MIN11/29rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
43Justin JeffersonWRMINvs ATL11/29rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
44De'Von AchaneRBMIAvs NYJ11/29rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
45Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ TB12/1rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
46Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs CHI11/26rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
47Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs CHI11/26rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
48CeeDee LambWRDALvs PHI11/26rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
49Zay FlowersWRBAL@ HOU11/29rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
50Alec PierceWRINDvs NYG11/29rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
51Saquon BarkleyRBPHI@ DAL11/26rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
52A.J. BrownWRNE@ LAC11/30rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
53Drake LondonWRATL@ MIN11/29rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
54Emeka EgbukaWRTBvs CAR12/1rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
55Chris OlaveWRNO@ CIN11/29rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
56D'Andre SwiftRBCHI@ DET11/26rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
57J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ PIT11/27rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
58Malik NabersWRNYG@ IND11/29rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
59Breece HallRBNYJ@ MIA11/29rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
60Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXvs TEN11/29rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
61Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs PHI11/26rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
62Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ PIT11/27rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
63Chase BrownRBCINvs NO11/29rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
64Ashton JeantyRBLV@ CLE11/29rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
65Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs GB11/26rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
66Josh JacobsRBGB@ LAR11/26rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
67Ladd McConkeyWRLACvs NE11/30rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
68DeVonta SmithWRPHI@ DAL11/26rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
69Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ BUF11/27rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
70Trey McBrideTEARIvs WAS11/29rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
71Tony PollardRBTEN@ JAX11/29rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
72DK MetcalfWRPITvs DEN11/27rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
73Michael WilsonWRARIvs WAS11/29rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
74Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ ARI11/29rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
75Jaylen WarrenRBPITvs DEN11/27rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
76Luther BurdenWRCHI@ DET11/26rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
77Colston LovelandTECHI@ DET11/26rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
78Quinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs LV11/29rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
79Rashee RiceWRKC@ BUF11/27rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
80Tee HigginsWRCINvs NO11/29rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
81Travis EtienneRBNO@ CIN11/29rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ JAX11/29rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
83Bucky IrvingRBTBvs CAR12/1rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
84Quentin JohnstonWRLACvs NE11/30rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
85George KittleTESFvs SEA11/29rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
86Zach CharbonnetRBSEA@ SF11/29rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
87Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs SEA11/29rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
88Oronde GadsdenTELACvs NE11/30rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
89Rome OdunzeWRCHI@ DET11/26rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
90Jakobi MeyersWRJAXvs TEN11/29rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
91Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ PIT11/27rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
92Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs WAS11/29rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
93Travis KelceTEKC@ BUF11/27rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
94Jeremiyah LoveRBARIvs WAS11/29rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
95Michael PittmanWRPITvs DEN11/27rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
96Rico DowdleRBPITvs DEN11/27rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
97Brock BowersTELV@ CLE11/29rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
98Omarion HamptonRBLACvs NE11/30rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
99Troy FranklinWRDEN@ PIT11/27rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
100Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ TB12/1rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
100 of 576
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.