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Player Props

2026 · week 8
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
504 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs MIN11/1pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs ARI11/1pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLARvs LAC11/1pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKC@ DEN11/1pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Drake MayeQBNE@ MIA11/1pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
6Joe BurrowQBCINvs TEN11/1pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
7Bo NixQBDENvs KC11/1pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Trevor LawrenceQBJAXvs IND11/1pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
9Caleb WilliamsQBCHI@ SEA11/3pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
10Baker MayfieldQBTBvs ATL11/1pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Josh AllenQBBUFvs BAL11/1pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Justin HerbertQBLAC@ LAR11/1pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs CHI11/3pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
14Jordan LoveQBGBvs CAR10/30pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
15Geno SmithQBNYJvs LV11/1pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
16Tua TagovailoaQBATL@ TB11/1pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ BUF11/1pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
18Daniel JonesQBIND@ JAX11/1pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
19Aaron RodgersQBPITvs CLE11/1pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
20Jalen HurtsQBPHI@ WAS11/2pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
21Kirk CousinsQBLV@ NYJ11/1pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
22Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ DAL11/1pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
23Kyler MurrayQBMIN@ DET11/1pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
24Jayden DanielsQBWASvs PHI11/2pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
25Cam WardQBTEN@ CIN11/1pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
26Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ PIT11/1pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
27Bryce YoungQBCAR@ GB10/30pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
28Quinn EwersQBMIAvs NE11/1pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
29Puka NacuaWRLARvs LAC11/1rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
30Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ JAX11/1rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
31Derrick HenryRBBAL@ BUF11/1rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
32Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs CHI11/3rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
33George PickensWRDALvs ARI11/1rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
34Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINvs TEN11/1rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
35Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs MIN11/1rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
36James CookRBBUFvs BAL11/1rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
37Bijan RobinsonRBATL@ TB11/1rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
38Justin JeffersonWRMIN@ DET11/1rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
39Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ GB10/30rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
40De'Von AchaneRBMIAvs NE11/1rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
41Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs MIN11/1rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
42CeeDee LambWRDALvs ARI11/1rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
43Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs MIN11/1rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
44Zay FlowersWRBAL@ BUF11/1rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
45Alec PierceWRIND@ JAX11/1rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
46Saquon BarkleyRBPHI@ WAS11/2rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
47A.J. BrownWRNE@ MIA11/1rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
48Drake LondonWRATL@ TB11/1rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
49Emeka EgbukaWRTBvs ATL11/1rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
50D'Andre SwiftRBCHI@ SEA11/3rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
51J.K. DobbinsRBDENvs KC11/1rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
52Breece HallRBNYJvs LV11/1rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
53Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXvs IND11/1rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
54Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs ARI11/1rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
55Courtland SuttonWRDENvs KC11/1rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
56Chase BrownRBCINvs TEN11/1rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
57Ashton JeantyRBLV@ NYJ11/1rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
58Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs LAC11/1rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
59Josh JacobsRBGBvs CAR10/30rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
60Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ LAR11/1rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
61DeVonta SmithWRPHI@ WAS11/2rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
62Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ DEN11/1rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
63Trey McBrideTEARI@ DAL11/1rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
64Tony PollardRBTEN@ CIN11/1rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
65DK MetcalfWRPITvs CLE11/1rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
66Michael WilsonWRARI@ DAL11/1rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
67Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWASvs PHI11/2rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
68Jaylen WarrenRBPITvs CLE11/1rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
69Luther BurdenWRCHI@ SEA11/3rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
70Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ PIT11/1rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
71Colston LovelandTECHI@ SEA11/3rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
72Rashee RiceWRKC@ DEN11/1rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
73Tee HigginsWRCINvs TEN11/1rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
74Bucky IrvingRBTBvs ATL11/1rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
75Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ CIN11/1rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
76Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ LAR11/1rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
77Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs CHI11/3rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
78Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ LAR11/1rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
79Jakobi MeyersWRJAXvs IND11/1rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
80Rome OdunzeWRCHI@ SEA11/3rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
81Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ DAL11/1rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
82Jaylen WaddleWRDENvs KC11/1rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
83Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ DAL11/1rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
84Travis KelceTEKC@ DEN11/1rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
85Michael PittmanWRPITvs CLE11/1rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
86Rico DowdleRBPITvs CLE11/1rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
87Brock BowersTELV@ NYJ11/1rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
88Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ LAR11/1rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
89Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ GB10/30rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
90Troy FranklinWRDENvs KC11/1rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
91Garrett WilsonWRNYJvs LV11/1rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
92Harold FanninTECLE@ PIT11/1rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
93D.J. MooreWRBUFvs BAL11/1rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
94Tyler WarrenTEIND@ JAX11/1rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
95Christian WatsonWRGBvs CAR10/30rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
96Parker WashingtonWRJAXvs IND11/1rec yds≈base44.2
30+
59%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
28%
97Kyle MonangaiRBCHI@ SEA11/3rush yds≈base44.1
30+
65%
40+
52%
50+
42%
60+
33%
98Khalil ShakirWRBUFvs BAL11/1rec yds≈base43.9
30+
59%
40+
47%
50+
37%
60+
28%
99Kyle PittsTEATL@ TB11/1rec yds≈base43.7
30+
61%
40+
47%
50+
34%
60+
25%
100Jerry JeudyWRCLE@ PIT11/1rec yds≈base42.4
30+
56%
40+
45%
50+
35%
60+
27%
100 of 504
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.