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Player Props

2026 · week 9
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
540 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDET@ MIA11/8pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDAL@ IND11/8pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLAR@ WAS11/8pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKCvs NYJ11/8pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSFvs LV11/8pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNEvs GB11/8pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCIN@ ATL11/8pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Bo NixQBDEN@ CAR11/8pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ BAL11/6pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs TB11/9pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTB@ CHI11/9pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUF@ MIN11/10pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLACvs HOU11/8pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs ARI11/8pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ NE11/8pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Geno SmithQBNYJ@ KC11/8pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs CIN11/8pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18C.J. StroudQBHOU@ LAC11/8pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
19Lamar JacksonQBBALvs JAX11/6pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Daniel JonesQBINDvs DAL11/8pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
21Tyler ShoughQBNOvs CLE11/8pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
22Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs NYG11/8pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Kirk CousinsQBLV@ SF11/8pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ SEA11/8pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
25Kyler MurrayQBMINvs BUF11/10pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
26Jayden DanielsQBWASvs LAR11/8pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
27Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ NO11/8pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
28Jaxson DartQBNYG@ PHI11/8pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
29Bryce YoungQBCARvs DEN11/8pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
30Quinn EwersQBMIAvs DET11/8pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
31Puka NacuaWRLAR@ WAS11/8rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
32Jonathan TaylorRBINDvs DAL11/8rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
33Nico CollinsWRHOU@ LAC11/8rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
34Derrick HenryRBBALvs JAX11/6rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs ARI11/8rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36George PickensWRDAL@ IND11/8rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
37Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ ATL11/8rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
38Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET@ MIA11/8rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
39James CookRBBUF@ MIN11/10rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
40Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs CIN11/8rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
41Justin JeffersonWRMINvs BUF11/10rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
42Tetairoa McMillanWRCARvs DEN11/8rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
43De'Von AchaneRBMIAvs DET11/8rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
44Jameson WilliamsWRDET@ MIA11/8rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
45CeeDee LambWRDAL@ IND11/8rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
46Jahmyr GibbsRBDET@ MIA11/8rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
47Zay FlowersWRBALvs JAX11/6rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
48Alec PierceWRINDvs DAL11/8rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
49Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs NYG11/8rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
50A.J. BrownWRNEvs GB11/8rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
51Drake LondonWRATLvs CIN11/8rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
52Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ CHI11/9rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
53Chris OlaveWRNOvs CLE11/8rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
54D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs TB11/9rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
55J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ CAR11/8rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
56Malik NabersWRNYG@ PHI11/8rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
57Breece HallRBNYJ@ KC11/8rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
58Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ BAL11/6rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
59Javonte WilliamsRBDAL@ IND11/8rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
60Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ CAR11/8rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
61Chase BrownRBCIN@ ATL11/8rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
62Ashton JeantyRBLV@ SF11/8rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
63Kyren WilliamsRBLAR@ WAS11/8rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
64Josh JacobsRBGB@ NE11/8rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
65Ladd McConkeyWRLACvs HOU11/8rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
66DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs NYG11/8rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
67Kenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs NYJ11/8rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
68Trey McBrideTEARI@ SEA11/8rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
69Michael WilsonWRARI@ SEA11/8rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
70Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWASvs LAR11/8rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
71Luther BurdenWRCHIvs TB11/9rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
72Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ NO11/8rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
73Colston LovelandTECHIvs TB11/9rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
74Rashee RiceWRKCvs NYJ11/8rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
75Tee HigginsWRCIN@ ATL11/8rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
76Travis EtienneRBNOvs CLE11/8rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
77Bucky IrvingRBTB@ CHI11/9rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
78Quentin JohnstonWRLACvs HOU11/8rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
79George KittleTESFvs LV11/8rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
80Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs ARI11/8rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
81Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs LV11/8rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Oronde GadsdenTELACvs HOU11/8rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
83Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ BAL11/6rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
84Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs TB11/9rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
85Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ CAR11/8rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
86Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ SEA11/8rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
87Travis KelceTEKCvs NYJ11/8rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
88Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ SEA11/8rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
89Brock BowersTELV@ SF11/8rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
90Omarion HamptonRBLACvs HOU11/8rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
91Chuba HubbardRBCARvs DEN11/8rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
92Troy FranklinWRDEN@ CAR11/8rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
93Garrett WilsonWRNYJ@ KC11/8rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
94Tank DellWRHOU@ LAC11/8rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
95Harold FanninTECLE@ NO11/8rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
96Tyler WarrenTEINDvs DAL11/8rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
97D.J. MooreWRBUF@ MIN11/10rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
98David MontgomeryRBHOU@ LAC11/8rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
99Juwan JohnsonTENOvs CLE11/8rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
100Christian WatsonWRGB@ NE11/8rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
100 of 540
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.