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Player Props

2026 · week 5
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
540 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDET@ ARI10/11pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs TB10/9pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLARvs BUF10/13pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Brock PurdyQBSF@ SEA10/11pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
5Drake MayeQBNEvs LV10/11pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
6Joe BurrowQBCIN@ MIA10/11pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
7Bo NixQBDEN@ LAC10/11pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Trevor LawrenceQBJAXvs PHI10/11pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
9Caleb WilliamsQBCHI@ GB10/11pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
10Baker MayfieldQBTB@ DAL10/9pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Josh AllenQBBUF@ LAR10/13pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Justin HerbertQBLACvs DEN10/11pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs SF10/11pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
14Jordan LoveQBGBvs CHI10/11pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
15Geno SmithQBNYJvs CLE10/11pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
16Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs BAL10/12pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17C.J. StroudQBHOU@ TEN10/11pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18Lamar JacksonQBBAL@ ATL10/12pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
19Daniel JonesQBIND@ PIT10/11pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Aaron RodgersQBPITvs IND10/11pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
21Tyler ShoughQBNOvs MIN10/11pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
22Jalen HurtsQBPHI@ JAX10/11pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Kirk CousinsQBLV@ NE10/11pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Jacoby BrissettQBARIvs DET10/11pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
25Kyler MurrayQBMIN@ NO10/11pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
26Jayden DanielsQBWASvs NYG10/11pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
27Cam WardQBTENvs HOU10/11pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
28Shedeur SandersQBCLE@ NYJ10/11pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
29Jaxson DartQBNYG@ WAS10/11pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
30Quinn EwersQBMIAvs CIN10/11pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
31Puka NacuaWRLARvs BUF10/13rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
32Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ PIT10/11rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
33Nico CollinsWRHOU@ TEN10/11rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
34Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs SF10/11rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
35Derrick HenryRBBAL@ ATL10/12rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
36George PickensWRDALvs TB10/9rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
37Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN@ MIA10/11rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
38Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET@ ARI10/11rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
39James CookRBBUF@ LAR10/13rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
40Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs BAL10/12rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
41Justin JeffersonWRMIN@ NO10/11rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
42De'Von AchaneRBMIAvs CIN10/11rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
43Jameson WilliamsWRDET@ ARI10/11rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
44CeeDee LambWRDALvs TB10/9rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
45Jahmyr GibbsRBDET@ ARI10/11rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
46Zay FlowersWRBAL@ ATL10/12rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
47Alec PierceWRIND@ PIT10/11rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
48Saquon BarkleyRBPHI@ JAX10/11rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
49A.J. BrownWRNEvs LV10/11rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
50Drake LondonWRATLvs BAL10/12rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
51Emeka EgbukaWRTB@ DAL10/9rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
52Chris OlaveWRNOvs MIN10/11rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
53D'Andre SwiftRBCHI@ GB10/11rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
54J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ LAC10/11rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
55Malik NabersWRNYG@ WAS10/11rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
56Breece HallRBNYJvs CLE10/11rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
57Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAXvs PHI10/11rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
58Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs TB10/9rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
59Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ LAC10/11rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
60Chase BrownRBCIN@ MIA10/11rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
61Ashton JeantyRBLV@ NE10/11rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
62Kyren WilliamsRBLARvs BUF10/13rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
63Josh JacobsRBGBvs CHI10/11rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
64Ladd McConkeyWRLACvs DEN10/11rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
65DeVonta SmithWRPHI@ JAX10/11rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
66Trey McBrideTEARIvs DET10/11rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
67Tony PollardRBTENvs HOU10/11rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
68DK MetcalfWRPITvs IND10/11rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
69Michael WilsonWRARIvs DET10/11rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
70Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWASvs NYG10/11rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
71Jaylen WarrenRBPITvs IND10/11rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
72Luther BurdenWRCHI@ GB10/11rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
73Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE@ NYJ10/11rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
74Colston LovelandTECHI@ GB10/11rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
75Tee HigginsWRCIN@ MIA10/11rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
76Travis EtienneRBNOvs MIN10/11rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
77Bucky IrvingRBTB@ DAL10/9rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
78Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENvs HOU10/11rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
79Quentin JohnstonWRLACvs DEN10/11rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
80George KittleTESF@ SEA10/11rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
81Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs SF10/11rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Christian McCaffreyRBSF@ SEA10/11rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
83Oronde GadsdenTELACvs DEN10/11rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
84Jakobi MeyersWRJAXvs PHI10/11rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
85Rome OdunzeWRCHI@ GB10/11rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
86Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ LAC10/11rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
87Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs DET10/11rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
88Jeremiyah LoveRBARIvs DET10/11rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
89Michael PittmanWRPITvs IND10/11rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
90Rico DowdleRBPITvs IND10/11rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
91Brock BowersTELV@ NE10/11rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
92Omarion HamptonRBLACvs DEN10/11rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
93Troy FranklinWRDEN@ LAC10/11rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
94Garrett WilsonWRNYJvs CLE10/11rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
95Tank DellWRHOU@ TEN10/11rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
96Harold FanninTECLE@ NYJ10/11rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
97Tyler WarrenTEIND@ PIT10/11rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
98D.J. MooreWRBUF@ LAR10/13rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
99David MontgomeryRBHOU@ TEN10/11rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
100Juwan JohnsonTENOvs MIN10/11rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
100 of 540
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.