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Player Props

2026 · week 4
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
576 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDET@ CAR10/5pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDAL@ HOU10/4pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLAR@ PHI10/4pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKC@ LV10/4pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSFvs DEN10/4pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNE@ BUF10/4pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCINvs JAX10/4pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Bo NixQBDEN@ SF10/4pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
9Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ CIN10/4pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
10Caleb WilliamsQBCHIvs NYJ10/4pass yds228.1
200+
64%
225+
53%
250+
39%
275+
27%
11Baker MayfieldQBTBvs GB10/4pass yds225.8
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
12Josh AllenQBBUFvs NE10/4pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
13Justin HerbertQBLAC@ SEA10/4pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
14Sam DarnoldQBSEAvs LAC10/4pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
15Jordan LoveQBGB@ TB10/4pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
16Geno SmithQBNYJ@ CHI10/4pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
17Tua TagovailoaQBATL@ NO10/6pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
18C.J. StroudQBHOUvs DAL10/4pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
19Lamar JacksonQBBALvs TEN10/4pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
20Daniel JonesQBIND@ WAS10/4pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
21Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ CLE10/2pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
22Tyler ShoughQBNOvs ATL10/6pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
23Jalen HurtsQBPHIvs LAR10/4pass yds200.2
175+
64%
200+
52%
225+
40%
250+
29%
24Kirk CousinsQBLVvs KC10/4pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
25Jacoby BrissettQBARI@ NYG10/4pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
26Kyler MurrayQBMINvs MIA10/4pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
27Jayden DanielsQBWASvs IND10/4pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
28Cam WardQBTEN@ BAL10/4pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
29Shedeur SandersQBCLEvs PIT10/2pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
30Jaxson DartQBNYGvs ARI10/4pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
31Bryce YoungQBCARvs DET10/5pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
32Quinn EwersQBMIA@ MIN10/4pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
33Puka NacuaWRLAR@ PHI10/4rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
34Jonathan TaylorRBIND@ WAS10/4rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
35Nico CollinsWRHOUvs DAL10/4rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
36Derrick HenryRBBALvs TEN10/4rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
37Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEAvs LAC10/4rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
38George PickensWRDAL@ HOU10/4rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
39Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINvs JAX10/4rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
40Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET@ CAR10/5rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
41James CookRBBUFvs NE10/4rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
42Bijan RobinsonRBATL@ NO10/6rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
43Justin JeffersonWRMINvs MIA10/4rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
44De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ MIN10/4rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
45Tetairoa McMillanWRCARvs DET10/5rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
46Jameson WilliamsWRDET@ CAR10/5rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
47CeeDee LambWRDAL@ HOU10/4rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
48Jahmyr GibbsRBDET@ CAR10/5rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
49Zay FlowersWRBALvs TEN10/4rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
50Alec PierceWRIND@ WAS10/4rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
51Saquon BarkleyRBPHIvs LAR10/4rush yds≈base64.9
50+
61%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
52A.J. BrownWRNE@ BUF10/4rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
53Drake LondonWRATL@ NO10/6rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
54Emeka EgbukaWRTBvs GB10/4rec yds≈base63.7
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
32%
55Chris OlaveWRNOvs ATL10/6rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
56D'Andre SwiftRBCHIvs NYJ10/4rush yds≈base62.8
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
57J.K. DobbinsRBDEN@ SF10/4rush yds≈base62.6
50+
58%
60+
48%
70+
38%
80+
30%
58Malik NabersWRNYGvs ARI10/4rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
59Breece HallRBNYJ@ CHI10/4rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
60Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ CIN10/4rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
61Javonte WilliamsRBDAL@ HOU10/4rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
62Courtland SuttonWRDEN@ SF10/4rec yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
63Chase BrownRBCINvs JAX10/4rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
64Ashton JeantyRBLVvs KC10/4rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
65Kyren WilliamsRBLAR@ PHI10/4rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
66Josh JacobsRBGB@ TB10/4rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
67Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ SEA10/4rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
68DeVonta SmithWRPHIvs LAR10/4rec yds≈base57.4
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
24%
69Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ LV10/4rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
70Trey McBrideTEARI@ NYG10/4rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
71Tony PollardRBTEN@ BAL10/4rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
72DK MetcalfWRPIT@ CLE10/2rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
73Michael WilsonWRARI@ NYG10/4rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
74Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWASvs IND10/4rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
75Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ CLE10/2rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
76Luther BurdenWRCHIvs NYJ10/4rec yds≈base51.5
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
77Quinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs PIT10/2rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
78Colston LovelandTECHIvs NYJ10/4rec yds≈base51.1
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
33%
70+
26%
79Rashee RiceWRKC@ LV10/4rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
80Tee HigginsWRCINvs JAX10/4rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
81Travis EtienneRBNOvs ATL10/6rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
82Bucky IrvingRBTBvs GB10/4rush yds≈base50.3
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
83Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN@ BAL10/4rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
84Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ SEA10/4rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
85George KittleTESFvs DEN10/4rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
86Zach CharbonnetRBSEAvs LAC10/4rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
87Christian McCaffreyRBSFvs DEN10/4rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
88Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ SEA10/4rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
89Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ CIN10/4rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
90Rome OdunzeWRCHIvs NYJ10/4rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
43%
60+
33%
70+
25%
91Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI@ NYG10/4rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
92Jaylen WaddleWRDEN@ SF10/4rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
93Jeremiyah LoveRBARI@ NYG10/4rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
94Travis KelceTEKC@ LV10/4rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
95Michael PittmanWRPIT@ CLE10/2rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
96Rico DowdleRBPIT@ CLE10/2rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
97Brock BowersTELVvs KC10/4rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
98Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ SEA10/4rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
99Troy FranklinWRDEN@ SF10/4rec yds≈base46.7
40+
51%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
23%
100Chuba HubbardRBCARvs DET10/5rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
100 of 576
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.