NFL
›

Player Props

2026 · week 10
Our model's chance each player clears a number, if he plays — not a market price, and no claim to beat one. Tested on 257k unseen player-games (2019-2025); no band off by more than 3 points. ≈base = barely better than knowing the player's volume.
Week123456789101112131415161718
Stat
PosTeamSort
504 props
showing 100 · click a column to sort
#PlayerPosTmGameStatProj ↓ChanceBook
1Jared GoffQBDETvs NE11/15pass yds259.8
225+
66%
250+
53%
275+
40%
300+
28%
2Dak PrescottQBDALvs SF11/15pass yds247
225+
64%
250+
52%
275+
39%
300+
27%
3Matthew StaffordQBLAR@ ARI11/15pass yds243.7
225+
61%
250+
49%
275+
36%
300+
25%
4Patrick MahomesQBKC@ ATL11/15pass yds243.1
225+
61%
250+
48%
275+
36%
300+
24%
5Brock PurdyQBSF@ DAL11/15pass yds235.5
200+
67%
225+
56%
250+
42%
275+
31%
6Drake MayeQBNE@ DET11/15pass yds233.4
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
30%
7Joe BurrowQBCINvs PIT11/16pass yds232.9
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
41%
275+
29%
8Trevor LawrenceQBJAX@ TEN11/15pass yds232.2
200+
66%
225+
55%
250+
40%
275+
29%
9Josh AllenQBBUF@ NYJ11/15pass yds225.7
200+
62%
225+
53%
250+
38%
275+
26%
10Justin HerbertQBLAC@ BAL11/17pass yds224.8
200+
62%
225+
52%
250+
38%
275+
26%
11Sam DarnoldQBSEA@ LV11/15pass yds222.8
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
26%
12Jordan LoveQBGBvs MIN11/15pass yds222
200+
62%
225+
51%
250+
37%
275+
25%
13Geno SmithQBNYJvs BUF11/15pass yds216.6
200+
62%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
14Tua TagovailoaQBATLvs KC11/15pass yds215.6
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
15C.J. StroudQBHOU@ CLE11/15pass yds215.3
200+
61%
225+
49%
250+
36%
275+
25%
16Lamar JacksonQBBALvs LAC11/17pass yds212.5
175+
70%
200+
60%
225+
47%
250+
34%
17Daniel JonesQBINDvs MIA11/15pass yds212.3
175+
70%
200+
59%
225+
47%
250+
34%
18Aaron RodgersQBPIT@ CIN11/16pass yds203
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
30%
19Tyler ShoughQBNOvs CAR11/15pass yds202.4
175+
66%
200+
53%
225+
40%
250+
29%
20Kirk CousinsQBLVvs SEA11/15pass yds200.1
175+
64%
200+
51%
225+
40%
250+
29%
21Jacoby BrissettQBARIvs LAR11/15pass yds197.2
175+
61%
200+
50%
225+
39%
250+
29%
22Kyler MurrayQBMIN@ GB11/15pass yds189.7
175+
55%
200+
46%
225+
37%
250+
27%
23Jayden DanielsQBWAS@ NYG11/13pass yds188.8
175+
54%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
24Cam WardQBTENvs JAX11/15pass yds188.4
175+
53%
200+
46%
225+
36%
250+
27%
25Shedeur SandersQBCLEvs HOU11/15pass yds177.9
150+
57%
175+
49%
200+
42%
225+
32%
26Jaxson DartQBNYGvs WAS11/13pass yds175.4
150+
56%
175+
48%
200+
41%
225+
31%
27Bryce YoungQBCAR@ NO11/15pass yds164.4
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
28Quinn EwersQBMIA@ IND11/15pass yds164
150+
53%
175+
45%
200+
37%
225+
28%
29Puka NacuaWRLAR@ ARI11/15rec yds≈base92.6
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
110+
22%
30Jonathan TaylorRBINDvs MIA11/15rush yds≈base82.6
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
31Nico CollinsWRHOU@ CLE11/15rec yds≈base79
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
32Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA@ LV11/15rec yds≈base78.5
70+
51%
80+
42%
90+
35%
100+
28%
33Derrick HenryRBBALvs LAC11/17rush yds≈base78.5
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
100+
23%
34George PickensWRDALvs SF11/15rec yds≈base77
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
35Ja'Marr ChaseWRCINvs PIT11/16rec yds≈base76.6
70+
50%
80+
41%
90+
34%
100+
27%
36Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDETvs NE11/15rec yds≈base74.9
60+
57%
70+
48%
80+
40%
90+
33%
37James CookRBBUF@ NYJ11/15rush yds≈base74.8
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
38Bijan RobinsonRBATLvs KC11/15rush yds≈base74.7
60+
58%
70+
47%
80+
38%
90+
29%
39Justin JeffersonWRMIN@ GB11/15rec yds≈base71.2
60+
55%
70+
46%
80+
37%
90+
30%
40Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR@ NO11/15rec yds≈base70.6
60+
55%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
30%
41De'Von AchaneRBMIA@ IND11/15rush yds≈base70.6
60+
56%
70+
45%
80+
36%
90+
28%
42Jameson WilliamsWRDETvs NE11/15rec yds≈base67.6
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
43Jahmyr GibbsRBDETvs NE11/15rush yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
42%
80+
34%
90+
26%
44CeeDee LambWRDALvs SF11/15rec yds≈base67.5
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
45Zay FlowersWRBALvs LAC11/17rec yds≈base67.1
60+
53%
70+
43%
80+
34%
90+
28%
46Alec PierceWRINDvs MIA11/15rec yds≈base65.2
60+
51%
70+
42%
80+
33%
90+
27%
47A.J. BrownWRNE@ DET11/15rec yds≈base64.4
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
48Drake LondonWRATLvs KC11/15rec yds≈base64
50+
61%
60+
51%
70+
41%
80+
32%
49Chris OlaveWRNOvs CAR11/15rec yds≈base63.4
50+
60%
60+
50%
70+
40%
80+
31%
50Malik NabersWRNYGvs WAS11/13rec yds≈base61.4
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
38%
80+
29%
51Breece HallRBNYJvs BUF11/15rush yds≈base61.2
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
37%
80+
28%
52Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX@ TEN11/15rec yds≈base61.1
50+
57%
60+
47%
70+
37%
80+
29%
53Javonte WilliamsRBDALvs SF11/15rush yds≈base60.8
50+
56%
60+
46%
70+
36%
80+
28%
54Chase BrownRBCINvs PIT11/16rush yds≈base60.3
50+
55%
60+
45%
70+
36%
80+
28%
55Ashton JeantyRBLVvs SEA11/15rush yds≈base59.2
50+
54%
60+
44%
70+
35%
80+
27%
56Kyren WilliamsRBLAR@ ARI11/15rush yds≈base58.8
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
57Josh JacobsRBGBvs MIN11/15rush yds≈base58.1
50+
53%
60+
43%
70+
34%
80+
26%
58Ladd McConkeyWRLAC@ BAL11/17rec yds≈base57.5
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
59Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC@ ATL11/15rush yds≈base57.3
50+
52%
60+
42%
70+
33%
80+
25%
60Trey McBrideTEARIvs LAR11/15rec yds≈base55.1
50+
49%
60+
38%
70+
30%
80+
22%
61Tony PollardRBTENvs JAX11/15rush yds≈base54.3
40+
62%
50+
50%
60+
39%
70+
30%
62DK MetcalfWRPIT@ CIN11/16rec yds≈base54.2
40+
58%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
63Michael WilsonWRARIvs LAR11/15rec yds≈base53
40+
57%
50+
46%
60+
37%
70+
28%
64Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS@ NYG11/13rush yds≈base52.7
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
38%
70+
29%
65Jaylen WarrenRBPIT@ CIN11/16rush yds≈base51.9
40+
60%
50+
48%
60+
37%
70+
28%
66Quinshon JudkinsRBCLEvs HOU11/15rush yds≈base51.1
40+
59%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
28%
67Rashee RiceWRKC@ ATL11/15rec yds≈base50.8
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
68Tee HigginsWRCINvs PIT11/16rec yds≈base50.6
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
35%
70+
26%
69Travis EtienneRBNOvs CAR11/15rush yds≈base50.4
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
70Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTENvs JAX11/15rec yds≈base50.3
40+
55%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
71Quentin JohnstonWRLAC@ BAL11/17rec yds≈base50.2
40+
55%
50+
43%
60+
34%
70+
26%
72George KittleTESF@ DAL11/15rec yds≈base50
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
32%
70+
24%
73Zach CharbonnetRBSEA@ LV11/15rush yds≈base49.9
40+
58%
50+
47%
60+
36%
70+
27%
74Christian McCaffreyRBSF@ DAL11/15rush yds≈base49.6
40+
58%
50+
46%
60+
36%
70+
27%
75Oronde GadsdenTELAC@ BAL11/17rec yds≈base49.5
40+
53%
50+
41%
60+
31%
70+
24%
76Jakobi MeyersWRJAX@ TEN11/15rec yds≈base49.3
40+
54%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
77Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARIvs LAR11/15rec yds≈base48.6
40+
53%
50+
42%
60+
33%
70+
25%
78Travis KelceTEKC@ ATL11/15rec yds≈base47.8
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
29%
70+
22%
79Jeremiyah LoveRBARIvs LAR11/15rush yds≈base47.8
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
80Michael PittmanWRPIT@ CIN11/16rec yds≈base47.3
40+
52%
50+
40%
60+
31%
70+
24%
81Rico DowdleRBPIT@ CIN11/16rush yds≈base47.3
40+
56%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
27%
82Brock BowersTELVvs SEA11/15rec yds≈base47.1
40+
51%
50+
38%
60+
29%
70+
22%
83Omarion HamptonRBLAC@ BAL11/17rush yds≈base46.9
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
84Chuba HubbardRBCAR@ NO11/15rush yds≈base46.7
40+
55%
50+
45%
60+
35%
70+
26%
85Garrett WilsonWRNYJvs BUF11/15rec yds≈base46.5
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
86Tank DellWRHOU@ CLE11/15rec yds≈base46.3
40+
51%
50+
39%
60+
31%
70+
23%
87Harold FanninTECLEvs HOU11/15rec yds≈base45.8
40+
49%
50+
37%
60+
27%
70+
20%
88D.J. MooreWRBUF@ NYJ11/15rec yds≈base45.5
40+
50%
50+
38%
60+
30%
70+
22%
89Tyler WarrenTEINDvs MIA11/15rec yds≈base45.5
40+
49%
50+
36%
60+
27%
70+
20%
90David MontgomeryRBHOU@ CLE11/15rush yds≈base45
40+
54%
50+
44%
60+
34%
70+
26%
91Juwan JohnsonTENOvs CAR11/15rec yds≈base44.7
30+
62%
40+
48%
50+
35%
60+
26%
92Christian WatsonWRGBvs MIN11/15rec yds≈base44.6
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
29%
93Parker WashingtonWRJAX@ TEN11/15rec yds≈base44.2
30+
59%
40+
48%
50+
37%
60+
28%
94Khalil ShakirWRBUF@ NYJ11/15rec yds≈base43.9
30+
59%
40+
47%
50+
37%
60+
28%
95Kyle PittsTEATLvs KC11/15rec yds≈base43.7
30+
61%
40+
47%
50+
34%
60+
25%
96Cam SkatteboRBNYGvs WAS11/13rush yds≈base43.6
30+
64%
40+
51%
50+
41%
60+
32%
97Ricky PearsallWRSF@ DAL11/15rec yds≈base43.4
30+
58%
40+
47%
50+
36%
60+
28%
98Jaxson DartQBNYGvs WAS11/13rush yds43.3
30+
60%
40+
46%
50+
32%
60+
23%
99Jerry JeudyWRCLEvs HOU11/15rec yds≈base42.4
30+
56%
40+
45%
50+
35%
60+
27%
100TreVeyon HendersonRBNE@ DET11/15rush yds≈base42.1
30+
60%
40+
48%
50+
39%
60+
29%
100 of 504
Informational only — our own model's probabilities, not betting advice and no guarantee of outcome. Must be 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.