NHL Projections · Hits

Skaters · 2024-25 (model vs actual) · per-82-GP

44% of these 79 landed inside their p10–p90 band · a season projection is a full-health baseline over the top projected players, so a big miss is often missed games, not the model

PositionSkaters Goalies

StatPoints Goals Assists Shots PP Points Hits Blocks PIM

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Projected leaders · Top 100

2024-25 · actual vs p50

#	Player	Pos	Tm	P	G	A	SOG	PPP	HIT ↓	BLK	PIM	Range	Actual	Δ
1	Jeremy Lauzon	D	VGK	15	4	10	100	0	323	102	86	200–383	127	−196
2	Michael Pezzetta	L	TOR	14	5	9	69	0	304	33	91	213–389	73	−231
3	Tanner Jeannot	L	BOS	25	11	13	100	1	298	51	104	202–320	211	−87
4	Luke Schenn	D	BUF	17	4	12	87	0	272	107	66	207–317	—	—
5	Brady Tkachuk	L	OTT	78	35	43	344	24	268	31	132	175–334	228	−40
6	Keegan Kolesar	R	VGK	20	8	11	80	0	264	41	56	213–322	237	−27
7	Simon Benoit	D	TOR	12	3	8	78	0	262	111	53	158–324	204	−58
8	Dakota Joshua	C	TOR	30	15	15	101	3	260	44	65	171–334	193	−67
9	Marcus Foligno	L	MIN	29	12	17	90	2	254	50	98	191–308	253	−1
10	Jack McBain	C	UTA	27	11	16	81	1	246	50	58	183–319	291	+45
11	Liam O'Brien	C	UTA	13	5	9	74	0	244	39	144	191–286	100	−144
12	Ryan Reaves	R	SJS	12	5	8	47	0	242	24	57	192–341	103	−139
13	Will Cuylle	L	NYR	30	12	13	130	3	235	31	61	154–268	301	+66
14	Martin Fehérváry	D	WSH	18	4	13	91	0	229	135	34	173–305	—	—
15	Erik Cernak	D	TBL	16	3	14	83	0	228	119	66	171–280	—	—
16	Tom Wilson	R	WSH	45	23	23	171	10	228	72	122	159–262	233	+5
17	Jani Hakanpää	D	TOR	13	3	11	73	0	227	137	44	173–297	1	−226
18	Cole Smith	R	VGK	22	8	14	99	0	227	33	62	157–255	163	−64
19	Mathieu Olivier	R	CBJ	18	8	11	88	0	223	59	91	163–286	306	+83
20	Noah Juulsen	D	PHI	12	2	9	50	0	223	122	38	172–295	—	—
21	Reese Johnson	C	MIN	13	7	8	88	0	223	34	53	172–305	—	—
22	Tye Kartye	L	NYR	25	12	13	121	1	223	32	35	142–284	—	—
23	Brenden Dillon	D	NJD	17	4	15	75	0	222	109	71	178–261	191	−31
24	Jakub Lauko	C	BOS	18	7	10	70	0	218	32	39	151–286	119	−99
25	Matt Martin	L	NYI	11	5	6	68	0	217	39	66	189–289	—	—
26	Arber Xhekaj	D	MTL	19	5	15	122	2	216	91	134	165–274	180	−36
27	Nathan Bastian	R	DAL	21	11	10	96	1	212	45	59	162–267	—	—
28	Brandon Duhaime	R	WSH	15	8	7	96	0	210	35	78	152–256	165	−45
29	Ty Emberson	D	EDM	23	4	19	92	3	206	114	23	160–285	125	−81
30	Connor Clifton	D	PIT	18	4	14	87	0	206	108	65	145–239	208	+2
31	Jacob Trouba	D	ANA	27	7	22	161	2	205	184	68	156–259	164	−41
32	Emil Lilleberg	D	TBL	15	3	13	75	1	205	100	37	139–282	114	−91
33	Sean Kuraly	C	BOS	21	11	11	108	1	204	47	61	142–242	163	−41
34	Mitchell Chaffee	R	TBL	19	9	10	78	1	203	49	19	162–250	133	−70
35	Curtis Lazar	C	EDM	22	9	13	92	0	202	72	36	135–243	107	−95
36	Josh Manson	D	COL	23	6	16	113	0	201	108	86	130–244	—	—
37	Jake McCabe	D	TOR	23	5	18	83	1	200	150	49	162–249	118	−82
38	J.T. Miller	C	NYR	93	30	61	193	30	199	51	56	150–242	168	−31
39	Chris Wagner	C	COL	14	5	8	91	1	198	39	40	123–294	57	−141
40	Moritz Seider	D	DET	45	7	38	160	16	197	172	42	148–233	212	+15
41	Yakov Trenin	C	MIN	24	13	10	126	1	196	37	41	158–235	241	+45
42	Nicolas Aube-Kubel	R	MIN	21	8	12	88	0	194	29	48	148–232	40	−154
43	Nick Foligno	L	MIN	29	13	18	125	9	193	42	63	140–226	200	+7
44	Brayden Pachal	D	CGY	14	4	10	93	0	191	107	72	139–231	159	−32
45	Sam Lafferty	C	CHI	24	11	13	93	0	191	34	38	128–238	—	—
46	Andrei Svechnikov	R	CAR	71	27	42	234	21	191	27	78	139–221	148	−43
47	Mattias Samuelsson	D	BUF	17	3	15	101	0	190	143	37	145–241	—	—
48	Parker Kelly	C	COL	17	8	9	92	0	190	54	46	147–224	—	—
49	Givani Smith	R	COL	12	5	6	74	0	187	26	123	134–256	—	—
50	Carl Grundstrom	R	PHI	25	14	10	133	2	187	29	26	126–228	—	—
51	Will Borgen	D	NYR	21	3	17	92	0	187	102	55	138–224	122	−65
52	Jonah Gadjovich	L	FLA	12	5	6	70	0	184	25	135	140–251	127	−57
53	Sam Bennett	C	FLA	51	23	25	215	11	183	45	88	139–220	145	−38
54	Mathew Dumba	D	PIT	17	5	13	99	1	182	113	74	136–240	70	−112
55	Klim Kostin	C	SJS	26	11	14	83	1	182	28	79	135–225	—	—
56	Eeli Tolvanen	R	SEA	40	17	21	159	8	182	67	24	137–225	237	+55
57	Adam Lowry	C	WPG	31	14	19	109	3	181	54	53	133–199	140	−41
58	Nikita Zadorov	D	BOS	20	6	13	103	0	181	66	97	132–217	219	+38
59	Brandon Tanev	L	UTA	22	11	13	89	0	180	66	44	128–222	168	−12
60	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	C	NYI	31	11	20	107	3	180	69	19	132–217	140	−40
61	Ryan Lomberg	L	CGY	15	7	6	86	0	180	26	98	130–216	120	−60
62	Noel Acciari	C	PIT	16	8	8	88	0	179	97	25	134–227	—	—
63	Connor Murphy	D	EDM	14	4	10	85	0	179	169	67	149–215	117	−62
64	Niko Mikkola	D	FLA	17	3	13	85	0	179	125	65	143–218	137	−42
65	Andrew Peeke	D	BOS	15	4	12	88	0	179	147	35	132–216	105	−74
66	Dryden Hunt	L	CGY	17	8	11	89	0	178	21	40	141–238	10	−168
67	Patrick Brown	C	BOS	14	5	7	78	0	177	59	37	136–236	46	−131
68	Tyler Tucker	D	STL	13	4	11	72	1	177	81	104	127–242	—	—
69	Luke Kunin	C	FLA	23	11	12	112	3	176	64	90	112–222	187	+11
70	Trent Frederic	C	EDM	35	15	18	127	2	174	45	66	127–240	—	—
71	Dylan Holloway	L	STL	24	11	13	107	2	174	31	48	115–218	165	−9
72	Zack MacEwen	C	NJD	12	5	7	75	0	174	37	106	142–232	—	—
73	Ivan Barbashev	L	VGK	45	17	27	120	6	174	46	39	131–203	—	—
74	Vasily Podkolzin	R	EDM	23	10	11	103	1	173	32	26	110–274	211	+38
75	MacKenzie Weegar	D	UTA	43	9	32	189	10	173	167	54	145–202	223	+50
76	Lawson Crouse	L	UTA	44	21	22	164	9	172	53	41	139–218	193	+21
77	Austin Watson	L	DET	11	6	5	66	0	172	41	137	117–286	36	−136
78	John Beecher	C	CGY	20	9	10	75	1	172	49	36	109–232	85	−87
79	Alexander Romanov	D	NYI	21	5	18	117	0	171	154	37	130–218	147	−24
80	Ilya Lyubushkin	D	DAL	11	2	9	56	0	171	130	52	131–226	84	−87
81	Noah Gregor	C	FLA	21	11	11	142	1	169	43	31	111–223	94	−75
82	Adam Larsson	D	SEA	26	6	19	122	1	168	153	47	133–239	104	−64
83	Julien Gauthier	R	NYI	21	11	9	99	0	166	34	14	119–232	—	—
84	Rasmus Ristolainen	D	PHI	20	4	14	102	1	165	122	35	125–237	97	−68
85	Ross Johnston	L	ANA	11	5	7	49	0	165	34	117	142–225	134	−31
86	Alexey Toropchenko	R	STL	23	11	11	110	0	164	53	27	113–218	223	+59
87	Sam Carrick	C	BUF	16	8	8	87	0	164	38	103	113–210	137	−27
88	Ivan Miroshnichenko	L	WSH	31	13	21	137	6	163	31	26	113–214	28	−135
89	Jayden Struble	D	MTL	16	4	13	78	1	162	82	69	112–223	124	−38
90	Josh Anderson	R	MTL	30	15	13	150	2	162	44	73	119–204	176	+14
91	Riley Stillman	D	EDM	14	3	11	74	0	161	95	59	108–223	8	−153
92	Artem Zub	D	OTT	24	6	17	91	0	160	134	48	117–206	58	−102
93	Kieffer Bellows	L	NSH	20	9	13	111	2	160	30	28	103–228	35	−125
94	Jeff Petry	D	MIN	23	4	20	98	2	160	138	37	128–197	51	−109
95	Justin Brazeau	R	PIT	30	15	15	131	6	160	49	18	105–214	123	−37
96	Vincent Trocheck	C	NYR	67	24	44	199	19	159	64	59	135–205	214	+55
97	Michael McCarron	C	MIN	22	11	11	98	0	159	52	92	125–217	149	−10
98	Logan Stanley	D	BUF	15	3	11	90	0	159	104	81	112–211	88	−71
99	John Ludvig	D	COL	15	6	9	67	1	159	66	85	102–220	16	−143
100	Bobby McMann	C	SEA	28	13	13	150	2	158	27	62	114–202	136	−22