NBA Projections · Turnovers
2024-25 (model vs actual) · per-game
78% of these 100 landed inside their p10–p90 band · a season projection is a full-health baseline over the top projected players, so a big miss is often missed games, not the model
Projected leaders · Top 100
2024-25 · actual vs p50
| # | Player | Pos | Tm | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TOV ↓ | FG% | FT% | Range | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trae Young | G | WAS | 26.9 | 3.0 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 4.1 | .439 | .885 | 3.0–4.7 | 4.7 | +0.6 |
| 2 | Luka Doncic | G | LAL | 30.0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | .486 | .755 | 3.1–4.4 | 3.6 | −0.4 |
| 3 | Victor Wembanyama | F | SAS | 23.6 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.7 | .468 | .802 | 2.5–4.5 | 3.2 | −0.5 |
| 4 | Joel Embiid | C | PHI | 30.0 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | .531 | .846 | 2.8–3.7 | 3.3 | −0.2 |
| 5 | LaMelo Ball | G | MIN | 23.8 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | .433 | .857 | 2.5–3.8 | 3.6 | +0.1 |
| 6 | Cade Cunningham | G | DET | 23.2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | .443 | .863 | 2.6–3.8 | 4.4 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | MIA | 29.1 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 3.3 | .574 | .669 | 3.0–3.7 | 3.1 | −0.2 |
| 8 | Nikola Jokic | C | DEN | 26.6 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.2 | .575 | .822 | 2.6–4.0 | 3.3 | +0.1 |
| 9 | LeBron James | F | PHI | 26.1 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | .510 | .753 | 2.4–3.6 | 3.7 | +0.5 |
| 10 | Julius Randle | F | BKN | 23.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | .456 | .752 | 2.6–3.6 | 2.8 | −0.3 |
| 11 | Paolo Banchero | F | ORL | 23.2 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | .451 | .741 | 2.2–3.6 | 3.0 | −0.2 |
| 12 | Anthony Edwards | G | MIN | 26.6 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | .462 | .808 | 2.7–3.7 | 3.2 | +0.0 |
| 13 | Kevin Durant | F | HOU | 26.7 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.1 | .526 | .881 | 2.5–3.5 | 3.1 | −0.0 |
| 14 | Kevin Porter Jr. | G | MIL | 18.7 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | .437 | .759 | 2.6–3.4 | 1.8 | −1.3 |
| 15 | Domantas Sabonis | F | SAC | 19.3 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.1 | .582 | .727 | 2.6–3.5 | 2.9 | −0.2 |
| 16 | Darius Garland | G | LAC | 20.1 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | .454 | .864 | 2.4–3.6 | 2.5 | −0.5 |
| 17 | Scoot Henderson | G | POR | 15.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 3.0 | .399 | .824 | 2.2–4.1 | 2.7 | −0.3 |
| 18 | Stephen Curry | G | GSW | 26.3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | .457 | .905 | 2.3–3.3 | 2.9 | +0.0 |
| 19 | Karl-Anthony Towns | C | NYK | 21.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | .508 | .862 | 2.0–3.1 | 2.7 | −0.1 |
| 20 | Zion Williamson | F | NOP | 24.4 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.8 | .580 | .720 | 2.1–3.1 | 3.0 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Jayson Tatum | F | BOS | 27.7 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | .467 | .854 | 2.3–3.1 | 2.9 | +0.2 |
| 22 | James Harden | G | CLE | 15.8 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | .426 | .866 | 1.9–3.1 | 4.3 | +1.6 |
| 23 | Kyle Kuzma | F | MIL | 20.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | .456 | .752 | 2.1–3.2 | 2.2 | −0.5 |
| 24 | Donovan Mitchell | G | CLE | 26.8 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | .476 | .877 | 2.3–3.3 | 2.1 | −0.6 |
| 25 | Damian Lillard | G | POR | 25.2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | .436 | .886 | 2.1–3.0 | 2.8 | +0.1 |
| 26 | Alperen Sengun | C | HOU | 19.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.6 | .520 | .715 | 1.8–3.1 | 2.6 | −0.1 |
| 27 | Brandon Ingram | F | TOR | 22.0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | .481 | .831 | 2.1–2.9 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| 28 | Jaden Ivey | G | TOT | 16.1 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | .434 | .768 | 1.7–3.1 | 3.0 | +0.3 |
| 29 | De'Aaron Fox | G | SAS | 25.4 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | .481 | .761 | 2.2–3.1 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 30 | Jordan Poole | G | NOP | 18.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | .428 | .885 | 1.8–3.1 | 3.0 | +0.4 |
| 31 | Jaylen Brown | G | PHI | 23.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | .486 | .740 | 2.0–2.9 | 2.6 | +0.0 |
| 32 | Jalen Green | G | PHX | 21.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | .437 | .803 | 1.6–2.9 | 2.5 | −0.1 |
| 33 | Bradley Beal | G | TOT | 17.8 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | .489 | .822 | 1.9–2.8 | 1.9 | −0.7 |
| 34 | Devin Booker | G | PHX | 26.7 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | .486 | .866 | 2.2–2.9 | 2.9 | +0.4 |
| 35 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G | OKC | 28.7 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 | .510 | .865 | 2.0–3.1 | 2.4 | −0.1 |
| 36 | Dejounte Murray | G | NOP | 21.6 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | .464 | .806 | 2.0–3.0 | 3.4 | +0.9 |
| 37 | Scottie Barnes | F | TOR | 19.7 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | .476 | .773 | 1.9–3.1 | 2.8 | +0.4 |
| 38 | Tyrese Haliburton | G | IND | 20.3 | 3.9 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | .473 | .854 | 1.6–3.0 | 1.6 | −0.8 |
| 39 | Tyler Herro | G | MIL | 21.4 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | .438 | .873 | 1.7–2.9 | 2.6 | +0.1 |
| 40 | Anfernee Simons | G | PHI | 21.2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | .438 | .887 | 1.9–2.9 | 2.0 | −0.4 |
| 41 | Josh Giddey | G | CHI | 14.7 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.4 | .466 | .765 | 1.4–3.1 | 2.9 | +0.5 |
| 42 | Keyonte George | G | UTA | 14.0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | .404 | .842 | 1.6–3.1 | 2.7 | +0.4 |
| 43 | Desmond Bane | G | ORL | 22.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | .475 | .882 | 1.8–2.7 | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| 44 | Bam Adebayo | C | MIA | 19.5 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | .528 | .777 | 1.7–3.0 | 2.1 | −0.3 |
| 45 | Paul George | F | BOS | 22.4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | .451 | .881 | 1.8–2.8 | 2.6 | +0.3 |
| 46 | Jordan Clarkson | G | NYK | 15.9 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | .430 | .849 | 1.7–2.8 | 2.3 | +0.0 |
| 47 | Marcus Smart | G | HOU | 12.3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | .422 | .781 | 1.6–2.9 | 1.6 | −0.7 |
| 48 | Draymond Green | F | GSW | 7.8 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | .502 | .706 | 1.5–2.8 | 2.6 | +0.3 |
| 49 | RJ Barrett | F | TOR | 20.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | .457 | .737 | 1.5–2.8 | 2.9 | +0.6 |
| 50 | Lonzo Ball | G | TOT | 11.6 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | .420 | .774 | 1.4–2.7 | 1.2 | −1.1 |
| 51 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | F | UTA | 20.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | .454 | .802 | 1.6–2.7 | 2.1 | −0.1 |
| 52 | Jalen Brunson | G | NYK | 24.4 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | .487 | .828 | 1.8–2.5 | 2.5 | +0.3 |
| 53 | Zach LaVine | G | SAC | 21.1 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | .473 | .857 | 1.5–2.9 | 2.8 | +0.6 |
| 54 | D'Angelo Russell | G | MEM | 17.9 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | .448 | .828 | 1.6–2.8 | 1.9 | −0.3 |
| 55 | Khris Middleton | F | WAS | 14.9 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | .458 | .861 | 1.3–2.8 | 1.5 | −0.6 |
| 56 | Jamal Murray | G | DEN | 20.7 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | .470 | .852 | 1.5–2.6 | 2.1 | −0.1 |
| 57 | Russell Westbrook | G | SAC | 11.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | .439 | .677 | 1.3–3.3 | 3.2 | +1.1 |
| 58 | Jusuf Nurkic | C | UTA | 10.6 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.1 | .515 | .674 | 1.3–2.6 | 1.9 | −0.2 |
| 59 | Jalen Duren | C | DET | 15.0 | 11.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.1 | .622 | .733 | 1.2–2.4 | 1.7 | −0.3 |
| 60 | Scotty Pippen Jr. | G | MEM | 12.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | .464 | .744 | 1.0–3.3 | 1.7 | −0.3 |
| 61 | Collin Sexton | G | LAL | 18.4 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | .478 | .834 | 1.2–2.8 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 62 | Franz Wagner | F | ORL | 20.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | .480 | .849 | 1.4–2.7 | 2.3 | +0.3 |
| 63 | Anthony Davis | F | WAS | 24.9 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 2.0 | .552 | .794 | 1.6–2.4 | 2.2 | +0.2 |
| 64 | Jeremy Sochan | F | NYK | 13.3 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | .450 | .751 | 1.2–2.6 | 1.6 | −0.4 |
| 65 | Brandon Miller | F | CHA | 19.4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | .442 | .829 | 1.3–2.4 | 2.8 | +0.8 |
| 66 | Miles Bridges | F | PHX | 20.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | .472 | .822 | 1.6–2.4 | 2.1 | +0.2 |
| 67 | Deni Avdija | F | POR | 14.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | .474 | .746 | 1.2–2.7 | 2.7 | +0.8 |
| 68 | Malik Monk | G | SAC | 15.3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | .449 | .846 | 1.2–2.7 | 2.4 | +0.5 |
| 69 | Kyrie Irving | G | DAL | 26.3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | .492 | .909 | 1.5–2.3 | 2.2 | +0.3 |
| 70 | Evan Mobley | C | CLE | 16.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.9 | .555 | .695 | 1.2–2.6 | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| 71 | Jalen Suggs | G | ORL | 13.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | .446 | .764 | 1.2–2.7 | 2.9 | +1.0 |
| 72 | Jrue Holiday | G | POR | 13.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | .470 | .821 | 1.4–2.5 | 1.2 | −0.6 |
| 73 | Coby White | G | CHA | 18.6 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | .442 | .849 | 1.3–2.4 | 2.4 | +0.5 |
| 74 | Jerami Grant | F | MEM | 19.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | .455 | .828 | 1.5–2.5 | 1.4 | −0.5 |
| 75 | Pascal Siakam | F | IND | 21.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | .502 | .749 | 1.5–2.7 | 1.4 | −0.5 |
| 76 | Austin Reaves | G | LAL | 15.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | .477 | .849 | 1.1–2.5 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 77 | Ben Simmons | PG | TOT | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | .575 | .507 | 1.0–2.7 | 2.0 | +0.2 |
| 78 | Jalen Williams | G | OKC | 18.5 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | .524 | .822 | 1.2–2.5 | 2.2 | +0.4 |
| 79 | Bennedict Mathurin | G | LAC | 16.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | .442 | .831 | 1.0–2.6 | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 80 | CJ McCollum | G | ATL | 18.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | .443 | .780 | 1.3–2.4 | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 81 | DeMar DeRozan | G | SAC | 24.3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | .475 | .858 | 1.4–2.2 | 1.4 | −0.4 |
| 82 | Dennis Schroder | G | CLE | 13.0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | .429 | .853 | 1.2–2.5 | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 83 | Fred VanVleet | G | HOU | 16.7 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 | .415 | .862 | 1.4–2.5 | 1.4 | −0.3 |
| 84 | Deandre Ayton | C | WAS | 16.5 | 10.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.8 | .576 | .777 | 1.2–2.4 | 1.7 | −0.0 |
| 85 | Chet Holmgren | C | OKC | 17.9 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | .511 | .804 | 1.1–2.3 | 1.8 | +0.0 |
| 86 | Cam Thomas | G | TOT | 18.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | .445 | .858 | 1.0–2.2 | 2.5 | +0.8 |
| 87 | Kristaps Porzingis | C | GSW | 19.9 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | .493 | .857 | 1.1–2.3 | 1.3 | −0.4 |
| 88 | Kelly Olynyk | F | SAS | 9.0 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | .507 | .817 | 1.1–2.6 | 1.7 | +0.0 |
| 89 | Zach Collins | F | CHI | 11.0 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | .485 | .765 | 1.1–2.7 | 0.9 | −0.8 |
| 90 | Kawhi Leonard | F | LAC | 23.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | .518 | .882 | 1.4–2.2 | 1.9 | +0.3 |
| 91 | Cole Anthony | G | TOT | 11.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | .437 | .848 | 0.9–2.5 | 1.5 | −0.2 |
| 92 | Mikal Bridges | G | NYK | 18.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | .449 | .851 | 1.0–2.5 | 1.6 | −0.1 |
| 93 | Shaedon Sharpe | G | POR | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | .436 | .782 | 1.1–2.5 | 2.1 | +0.4 |
| 94 | Terry Rozier | G | TOT | 18.0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | .434 | .856 | 1.3–2.3 | 1.2 | −0.4 |
| 95 | OG Anunoby | F | NYK | 15.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | .472 | .791 | 1.2–2.4 | 1.4 | −0.3 |
| 96 | Jonathan Kuminga | F | ATL | 16.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | .515 | .711 | 0.9–2.4 | 1.5 | −0.1 |
| 97 | Jimmy Butler III | F | GSW | 20.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | .500 | .858 | 1.2–2.1 | 1.3 | −0.3 |
| 98 | Tyrese Maxey | G | PHI | 24.3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | .476 | .862 | 1.2–2.2 | 2.4 | +0.8 |
| 99 | Jarrett Allen | C | CLE | 16.0 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | .635 | .733 | 1.1–2.0 | 1.2 | −0.4 |
| 100 | Jalen Johnson | F | ATL | 14.9 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | .508 | .704 | 0.8–1.9 | 2.9 | +1.4 |