NHL Projections · Hits

Skaters · 2023-24 (model vs actual) · per-82-GP

55% of these 96 landed inside their p10–p90 band · a season projection is a full-health baseline over the top projected players, so a big miss is often missed games, not the model

PositionSkaters Goalies

StatPoints Goals Assists Shots PP Points Hits Blocks PIM

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Projected leaders · Top 100

2023-24 · actual vs p50

#	Player	Pos	Tm	P	G	A	SOG	PPP	HIT ↓	BLK	PIM	Range	Actual	Δ
1	Radko Gudas	D	ANA	17	4	13	107	0	315	120	77	199–372	232	−83
2	Luke Schenn	D	BUF	18	4	14	85	0	303	99	75	181–356	202	−101
3	Tanner Jeannot	L	BOS	28	13	13	114	1	302	64	103	188–370	211	−91
4	Matt Martin	L	NYI	16	6	9	76	0	282	39	62	188–311	151	−131
5	Jack McBain	C	UTA	26	11	16	99	1	279	55	60	183–315	204	−75
6	Michael Pezzetta	L	TOR	18	8	11	97	1	277	33	104	186–353	242	−35
7	Keegan Kolesar	R	VGK	23	8	13	85	0	270	41	67	185–316	277	+7
8	Cal Clutterbuck	R	NYI	19	8	11	76	0	270	43	23	199–321	273	+3
9	Marcus Foligno	L	MIN	32	12	18	93	2	269	47	102	165–330	179	−90
10	Jeremy Lauzon	D	VGK	15	4	11	92	0	264	93	77	188–327	383	+119
11	Liam O'Brien	C	UTA	13	5	9	61	0	248	35	158	185–336	229	−19
12	Reese Johnson	C	MIN	14	6	9	75	0	239	33	48	197–312	109	−130
13	Martin Fehérváry	D	WSH	21	7	14	108	0	238	142	35	182–314	188	−50
14	Parker Kelly	C	COL	18	9	11	101	0	238	46	70	192–347	171	−67
15	Kyle Burroughs	D	SJS	12	3	9	78	0	235	121	85	177–311	233	−2
16	Brady Tkachuk	L	OTT	77	38	40	353	23	234	21	116	184–287	294	+60
17	Jani Hakanpää	D	TOR	14	3	11	79	0	223	119	47	180–268	196	−27
18	Klim Kostin	C	SJS	27	13	14	94	1	222	23	78	150–279	108	−114
19	Jarred Tinordi	D	CHI	11	3	9	71	0	221	115	65	148–283	171	−50
20	Ryan Reaves	R	SJS	12	4	8	50	0	220	25	47	194–286	165	−55
21	Brandon Duhaime	R	WSH	19	11	10	111	0	220	28	88	153–260	208	−12
22	Arber Xhekaj	D	MTL	23	7	16	129	5	217	78	121	163–280	125	−92
23	Noel Acciari	C	PIT	24	12	12	105	1	215	85	28	168–272	124	−91
24	Erik Cernak	D	TBL	20	4	17	108	0	215	107	64	162–274	198	−17
25	William Lockwood	R	FLA	15	7	9	88	1	212	68	30	169–266	54	−158
26	Dryden Hunt	L	CGY	15	7	8	76	0	211	21	44	161–301	73	−138
27	Noah Juulsen	D	PHI	15	4	11	73	1	211	100	41	153–281	163	−48
28	Alexander Romanov	D	NYI	19	4	16	112	0	208	127	43	154–263	157	−51
29	Rasmus Ristolainen	D	PHI	21	4	18	99	3	208	147	41	140–237	56	−152
30	Brendan Lemieux	L	CAR	18	8	10	93	0	208	33	106	157–253	71	−137
31	Connor Clifton	D	PIT	19	4	15	97	0	207	107	56	153–233	204	−3
32	Tom Wilson	R	WSH	50	23	27	172	11	204	54	129	170–271	228	+24
33	Lawson Crouse	L	UTA	44	22	23	162	9	203	53	50	161–251	175	−28
34	Curtis Lazar	C	EDM	16	8	9	94	0	203	61	22	152–264	179	−24
35	Jacob Trouba	D	ANA	32	8	23	185	4	202	175	63	159–233	191	−11
36	Kiefer Sherwood	L	SJS	26	13	12	120	3	200	37	40	144–258	—	—
37	Patrick Brown	C	BOS	15	6	10	79	0	199	56	39	143–241	25	−174
38	Sean Kuraly	C	BOS	23	11	13	113	1	199	50	60	154–253	156	−43
39	Nathan Bastian	R	DAL	27	13	12	110	1	199	52	57	145–236	143	−56
40	Mathieu Olivier	R	CBJ	17	8	11	86	0	198	60	95	145–253	163	−35
41	Ross Johnston	L	ANA	11	4	9	32	1	198	41	134	142–265	139	−59
42	Nikita Okhotiuk	D	CGY	22	7	12	88	3	197	52	29	159–274	147	−50
43	Cole Smith	R	VGK	19	7	12	72	0	195	31	56	142–288	235	+40
44	Brandon Tanev	L	UTA	31	15	18	112	2	195	61	43	142–250	148	−47
45	Jonah Gadjovich	L	FLA	14	7	8	80	0	194	26	128	153–295	82	−112
46	Zack MacEwen	C	NJD	15	7	8	98	0	193	36	97	147–247	55	−138
47	Dakota Joshua	C	TOR	23	11	12	84	0	193	31	55	126–235	244	+51
48	Carl Grundstrom	R	PHI	27	14	12	123	1	191	33	29	148–244	115	−76
49	Moritz Seider	D	DET	41	6	39	166	16	191	171	42	140–247	211	+20
50	Adam Erne	L	DAL	23	9	13	90	2	191	51	34	145–234	68	−123
51	Zachary Aston-Reese	L	CBJ	18	10	9	94	0	190	46	28	129–217	3	−187
52	Jeff Petry	D	MIN	32	7	27	146	9	189	130	35	161–253	150	−39
53	Will Borgen	D	NYR	17	3	15	83	0	189	98	50	141–245	195	+6
54	Evander Kane	L	VAN	65	31	35	283	13	189	30	93	154–250	250	+61
55	Jujhar Khaira	L	MIN	21	10	11	94	1	188	50	53	145–228	1	−187
56	Austin Watson	L	DET	15	9	7	85	0	188	59	106	80–214	85	−103
57	Brayden McNabb	D	VGK	17	3	14	87	0	186	180	42	146–224	149	−37
58	Andrew Peeke	D	BOS	14	4	12	89	0	185	166	37	135–231	88	−97
59	Alex Ovechkin	L	WSH	76	43	33	309	25	185	30	28	135–233	162	−23
60	Garnet Hathaway	R	PHI	21	11	11	87	0	184	45	68	96–236	—	—
61	Brenden Dillon	D	NJD	19	3	16	79	0	184	100	67	139–207	241	+57
62	Adam Larsson	D	SEA	28	7	20	130	1	183	153	46	152–243	162	−21
63	Nick Foligno	L	MIN	25	9	16	106	4	183	40	60	122–246	192	+9
64	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	C	NYI	40	16	24	133	8	182	65	23	145–218	196	+14
65	Artem Zub	D	OTT	19	4	14	72	0	182	112	53	132–235	139	−43
66	Dennis Gilbert	D	OTT	12	3	9	54	1	182	82	83	115–239	59	−123
67	Nicolas Deslauriers	L	CAR	11	6	5	73	0	181	37	112	94–229	—	—
68	Nicolas Aube-Kubel	R	MIN	23	10	12	98	0	180	22	63	107–211	159	−21
69	J.T. Miller	C	NYR	81	30	51	204	27	180	50	54	137–216	217	+37
70	Simon Benoit	D	TOR	15	4	11	82	0	178	105	50	132–247	246	+68
71	Jason Zucker	L	BUF	43	22	21	185	8	176	36	41	128–221	98	−78
72	Andrei Svechnikov	R	CAR	71	31	42	251	23	175	25	78	123–216	142	−33
73	Zach Bogosian	D	MIN	13	4	8	90	0	174	74	73	132–219	109	−65
74	Nikita Zadorov	D	BOS	22	7	14	116	0	174	82	68	150–242	177	+3
75	MacKenzie Weegar	D	UTA	38	6	30	160	3	173	125	51	134–198	194	+21
76	Casey Cizikas	C	NYI	19	9	11	98	0	172	49	44	115–198	135	−37
77	Adam Lowry	C	WPG	30	13	17	117	2	172	46	42	145–195	181	+9
78	Robert Hagg	D	VGK	13	3	11	73	0	170	109	46	132–213	21	−149
79	William Carrier	L	CAR	30	15	14	141	1	170	28	39	80–194	90	−80
80	Josh Manson	D	COL	18	6	14	98	0	169	102	89	124–229	211	+42
81	Vincent Trocheck	C	NYR	59	24	36	199	16	168	43	54	134–192	175	+7
82	Michael McCarron	C	MIN	17	9	10	91	1	168	47	85	127–236	142	−26
83	Milan Lucic	L	BOS	20	9	11	77	1	168	19	55	130–212	12	−156
84	Alexander Petrovic	D	DAL	16	3	13	91	0	168	75	83	111–272	2	−166
85	Brayden Pachal	D	CGY	21	6	17	120	2	167	81	42	123–265	130	−37
86	Ross Colton	C	COL	34	17	16	146	5	167	31	36	111–207	141	−26
87	Sam Bennett	C	FLA	57	28	29	252	12	166	39	72	119–225	173	+7
88	Yakov Trenin	C	MIN	25	13	13	139	2	165	34	45	129–207	207	+42
89	Neal Pionk	D	WPG	35	7	28	147	7	165	119	37	132–222	—	—
90	Nikita Zaitsev	D	CHI	13	2	12	63	0	164	122	36	113–215	69	−95
91	Connor Murphy	D	EDM	15	4	11	90	0	164	166	65	124–211	116	−48
92	Ivan Barbashev	L	VGK	45	17	26	117	7	164	41	34	115–196	180	+16
93	Josh Anderson	R	MTL	39	23	16	182	5	164	49	69	125–221	169	+5
94	Anton Blidh	L	NYR	15	5	10	68	1	164	43	45	95–258	1	−163
95	Kaedan Korczak	D	VGK	23	7	17	122	3	163	80	20	103–282	43	−120
96	Luke Kunin	C	FLA	27	13	16	136	4	163	51	81	137–219	165	+2
97	Jake McCabe	D	TOR	22	4	17	92	0	161	154	48	125–196	219	+58
98	Mattias Samuelsson	D	BUF	19	5	16	104	0	160	124	33	119–222	106	−54
99	Logan Stanley	D	BUF	13	3	10	103	0	160	101	65	111–238	45	−115
100	Jamie Oleksiak	D	SEA	21	5	15	89	0	160	120	63	110–205	110	−50