MLB Terminal — projections, standings & analytics

Lucas Erceg

P · KC

31 yrs

Pitcher

Description

Position: P
Team: KC
Type: Pitcher
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
Born: 1995-05-01
Age: 31
Country: USA
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 214 lb
Last active: 2026

Career Résumé

4 seasons

Seasons	4 2023–2026
Games	212
W-L	18-17
ERA	3.87
WHIP	1.34
IP	216
SO	215
SV	28

Pitching Projections

2026 · per ~700 BF

Stat	Proj	Range (p10–p90)	vs LY
ERA	3.92	2.89–5.47	0.00
WHIP	1.32	1.02–1.65	+0.07
SO	163	122–196	−3
BB	61	39–75	+1
HR	16	10–33	−1
Hits	153	124–185	+8
ER	71	52–98	−1

Regular season

Season	Tm	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	SV	IP	SO	BB	HR	ER	xERA	Brl%
2026	KC	4	3	5.40	1.70	40	12	38.1	27	23	5	23	4.49	5.7%
2025	KC	8	4	2.64	1.17	61	2	61.1	48	18	4	18	3.85	7.3%
2024	KC	2	6	3.36	1.05	61	14	61.2	72	16	3	23	3.17	6.3%
2023	ATH	4	4	4.75	1.58	50	0	55.0	68	36	1	29	3.71	6.4%

Season	Pos	G	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	FLD%	RF/9	OAA
2026	P	40	38.1	3	7	1	0	.909	2.35	—
2025	P	61	61.1	2	9	2	1	.846	1.61	—
2024	P	61	61.2	5	7	1	2	.923	1.75	—
2023	P	50	55.0	2	3	2	1	.714	0.82	—

Date		Opp	Res
2026-07-19	vs	SD	L
2026-07-17	vs	SD	W
2026-07-12	@	BAL	L
2026-07-09	@	NYM	L
2026-07-07	@	NYM	W
2026-06-30	vs	TB	L
2026-06-28	@	CWS	W
2026-06-26	@	CWS	L
2026-06-21	vs	STL	L
2026-05-25	vs	NYY	L

Date		Opp	Res	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	Pit
2026-07-19	vs	SD	L	ND	0.1	1	1	1	1	2	0	26
2026-07-17	vs	SD	W	W	1.0	2	3	1	0	0	0	24
2026-07-12	@	BAL	L	ND	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	2	25
2026-07-09	@	NYM	L	ND	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15
2026-07-07	@	NYM	W	ND	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
2026-07-04	vs	PHI	L	ND	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	21
2026-06-30	vs	TB	L	ND	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13
2026-06-28	@	CWS	W	H	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18
2026-06-26	@	CWS	L	ND	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	15
2026-06-24	@	TB	L	ND	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	1	8
2026-06-21	vs	STL	L	ND	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	1	18
2026-06-17	@	WSH	W	ND	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	11
2026-06-12	vs	HOU	L	ND	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	43
2026-06-10	vs	TEX	L	H	0.1	0	1	1	0	2	1	16
2026-06-07	@	MIN	W	S	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	15
2026-06-06	@	MIN	W	ND	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	1	15
2026-06-02	@	CIN	L	BS	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	2	24
2026-05-30	@	TEX	L	L	0.0	5	3	3	1	0	0	17
2026-05-25	vs	NYY	L	L	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	0	14
2026-05-24	vs	SEA	W	ND	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	1	32
2026-05-17	@	STL	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	22
2026-05-15	@	STL	L	BS	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	2	12
2026-05-14	@	CWS	L	ND	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	15
2026-05-08	vs	DET	W	W	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	14
2026-05-05	vs	CLE	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	1	15
2026-05-02	@	SEA	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17
2026-05-01	@	SEA	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	12
2026-04-28	@	ATH	W	S	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	1	23
2026-04-26	vs	LAA	W	W	1.0	0	1	0	0	1	2	21
2026-04-24	vs	LAA	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	2	18
2026-04-21	vs	BAL	W	W	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14
2026-04-20	vs	BAL	L	BS	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	0	32
2026-04-16	@	DET	L	L	0.2	3	3	3	0	1	1	24
2026-04-11	vs	CWS	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	12
2026-04-10	vs	CWS	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
2026-04-06	@	CLE	W	S	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	14
2026-04-05	vs	MIL	L	ND	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	1	30
2026-04-01	vs	MIN	W	S	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
2026-03-29	@	ATL	W	S	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	1	12
2026-03-28	@	ATL	L	H	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	12

Pitching Profile2026 · vs 260

K/9

6.310

BB/9

5.43

HR/9

1.241

ERA

5.4013

WHIP

1.702

xERA

4.4935

Brl%A

5.7%81

PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league

Career Highs

Stat	Best	Year
Wins	8	2025
SO	72	2024
SV	14	2024
ERA	2.64	2025
WHIP	1.05	2024

Comparable Players

2026 · stat-profile similarity

Victor VodnikCOL26y
5.64 ERA · 23 K · 1.75 WHIP
91%
vs
Luinder AvilaKC24y
5.08 ERA · 50 K · 1.62 WHIP
81%
vs
Richard LoveladyWSH31y
3.86 ERA · 27 K · 1.81 WHIP
79%
vs
Alex LangeKC30y
6.30 ERA · 39 K · 1.53 WHIP
78%
vs
Dennis SantanaPIT30y
6.05 ERA · 37 K · 1.51 WHIP
77%
vs

Career Arc

ERA by season · taller = better

Year over Year

pitching trajectory

Yr	Tm	W	ERA	WHIP	SO	IP
23	ATH	4	4.75	1.58	68	55
24	KC	2▼	3.36▼	1.05▼	72▲	62▲
25	KC	8▲	2.64▼	1.17▲	48▼	61▼
26	KC	4▼	5.40▲	1.70▲	27▼	38▼

Career Milestones

chase to the next mark

Wins18

32 to 50

Strikeouts215

785 to 1,000

Saves28

72 to 100

Season

Pitch Arsenal

2025 · Statcast

Pitch	Use	Velo	Spin
4-Seam	30%	97.6	2146
Slider	29%	85.0	2065
Sinker	24%	97.5	1909
Changeup	17%	90.0	1933

Plate Discipline

2025 · induced

29.2%

Chase

lg 28.5%

67.7%

Z-Swing

lg 67%

23.5%

Whiff

lg 24.5%

76.5%

Contact

lg 76%

49.9%

Zone

lg 48.5%

26.0%

CSW

lg 28%

1,010 pitches · green/red vs league avg

Statcast Trend

xERA by season · taller = better

Barrel% Against by season · taller = better

Per game	1.8
Ceiling (90th)	5.1
Floor (10th)	-3.2
Std dev	3.6
Boom rate	48%
Bust rate	28%
Profile	Volatile