MLB Terminal — projections, standings & analytics

Mitch Keller

P · PIT

30 yrs

Pitcher

Description

Position: P
Team: PIT
Type: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Born: 1996-04-04
Age: 30
Country: USA
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 213 lb
Last active: 2026

Career Résumé

8 seasons

Seasons	8 2019–2026
Games	184
W-L	48-72
ERA	4.58
WHIP	1.38
IP	981
SO	914
SV	0

Pitching Projections

2026 · per ~700 BF

Stat	Proj	Range (p10–p90)	vs LY
ERA	4.37	3.46–5.56	+0.18
WHIP	1.31	1.14–1.51	+0.04
SO	150	119–170	−4
BB	50	39–61	+2
HR	22	16–31	+1
Hits	163	146–181	+3
ER	79	62–100	+2

Regular season

Season	Tm	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	ER	xERA	Brl%
2026	PIT	6	7	5.14	1.33	19	19	103.1	77	35	13	59	5.41	7.4%
2025	PIT	6	15	4.19	1.26	32	32	176.1	150	51	21	82	4.45	7.8%
2024	PIT	11	12	4.25	1.30	31	31	178.0	166	50	23	84	4.25	7.2%
2023All-Star	PIT	13	9	4.21	1.25	32	32	194.1	210	55	25	91	4.18	8.6%
2022	PIT	5	12	3.91	1.40	31	29	159.0	138	60	14	69	4.16	7.1%
2021	PIT	5	11	6.17	1.79	23	23	100.2	92	49	10	69	5.73	6.8%
2020	PIT	1	1	2.91	1.25	5	5	21.2	16	18	4	7	6.08	11.5%
2019	PIT	1	5	7.13	1.83	11	11	48.0	65	16	6	38	3.51	5.5%

Regular season · OAA 2016+

Season	Pos	G	GS	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	FLD%	RF/9	OAA
2026	P	19	19	103.1	15	6	0	4	1.000	1.83	—
2025	P	32	32	176.1	17	8	0	0	1.000	1.28	—
2024	P	31	31	178.0	10	21	0	3	1.000	1.57	—
2023All-Star	P	32	32	194.1	18	21	1	4	.975	1.81	—
2022	P	31	29	159.0	10	15	1	2	.962	1.42	—
2021	P	23	23	100.2	4	10	0	1	1.000	1.25	—
2020	P	5	5	21.2	3	4	0	0	1.000	2.91	—
2019	P	11	11	48.0	3	1	1	0	.800	0.75	—

Date		Opp	Res
2026-07-09	vs	ATL	L
2026-07-03	@	WSH	L
2026-06-28	vs	CIN	W
2026-06-23	vs	SEA	L

Date		Opp	Res	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	Pit
2026-07-09	vs	ATL	L	L	3.0	4	3	3	1	2	3	72
2026-07-03	@	WSH	L	L	6.0	8	5	5	3	0	1	83
2026-06-28	vs	CIN	W	W	6.0	5	4	3	0	1	4	79
2026-06-23	vs	SEA	L	L	6.0	7	3	3	2	1	4	92
2026-06-16	@	ATH	W	ND	5.1	5	5	4	1	4	7	96
2026-06-11	vs	LAD	L	L	4.0	7	5	5	1	4	3	98
2026-06-05	@	ATL	L	L	4.2	7	6	6	1	3	4	99
2026-05-30	vs	MIN	W	ND	4.0	10	7	7	0	1	5	77
2026-05-24	@	TOR	W	W	6.0	4	1	1	0	3	5	101
2026-05-19	@	STL	L	ND	5.2	4	4	4	1	1	3	83
2026-05-13	vs	COL	L	L	5.2	7	6	6	1	1	3	80
2026-05-07	@	AZ	W	W	6.0	4	2	2	1	2	4	84
2026-05-01	vs	CIN	W	W	7.0	3	1	1	0	1	6	104
2026-04-25	@	MIL	W	ND	5.0	5	3	3	0	2	6	93
2026-04-19	vs	TB	W	W	7.0	5	2	2	0	0	5	89
2026-04-14	vs	WSH	L	L	4.0	6	5	5	1	4	3	90
2026-04-08	vs	SD	L	ND	6.0	3	0	0	0	1	4	75
2026-04-03	vs	BAL	W	W	6.0	6	2	2	0	4	4	88
2026-03-28	@	NYM	L	ND	6.0	3	0	0	0	0	3	77

2026 · vs 260

K/9

6.716

BB/9

3.052

HR/9

1.143

ERA

5.1418

WHIP

1.3337

xERA

5.419

Brl%A

7.4%50

PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league

Career Highs

Stat	Best	Year
Wins	13	2023
SO	210	2023
SV	0	2026
ERA	2.91	2020
WHIP	1.25	2023

Comparable Players

2026 · stat-profile similarity

Trevor McDonaldSF25y
5.12 ERA · 57 K · 1.31 WHIP
92%
vs
Slade CecconiCLE27y
4.55 ERA · 77 K · 1.41 WHIP
91%
vs
Janson JunkMIA30y
5.09 ERA · 51 K · 1.35 WHIP
90%
vs
Seth LugoKC36y
4.39 ERA · 89 K · 1.41 WHIP
90%
vs
Trevor RogersBAL28y
4.28 ERA · 77 K · 1.30 WHIP
89%
vs

Accolades

All-Star

2023

Career Arc

ERA by season · taller = better

Year over Year

pitching trajectory

Yr	Tm	W	ERA	WHIP	SO	IP
21	PIT	5	6.17	1.79	92	101
22	PIT	5	3.91▼	1.40▼	138▲	159▲
23	PIT	13▲	4.21▲	1.25▼	210▲	194▲
24	PIT	11▼	4.25▲	1.30▲	166▼	178▼
25	PIT	6▼	4.19▼	1.26▼	150▼	176▼
26	PIT	6	5.14▲	1.33▲	77▼	103▼

Career Milestones

chase to the next mark

Wins48

2 to 50

Strikeouts914

86 to 1,000

Season

Pitch Arsenal

2025 · Statcast

Pitch	Use	Velo	Spin
4-Seam	35%	94.1	2404
Sweeper	19%	82.3	2714
Sinker	18%	92.9	2461
Slider	14%	86.9	2531
Curve	7%	77.4	2612
Changeup	7%	89.2	2028

Plate Discipline

2025 · induced

25.8%

Chase

lg 28.5%

68.3%

Z-Swing

lg 67%

18.4%

Whiff

lg 24.5%

81.6%

Contact

lg 76%

52.6%

Zone

lg 48.5%

25.8%

CSW

lg 28%

2,919 pitches · green/red vs league avg

Statcast Trend

xERA by season · taller = better

Barrel% Against by season · taller = better

Per game	10.7
Ceiling (90th)	21.6
Floor (10th)	-1.1
Std dev	9.0
Boom rate	32%
Bust rate	37%
Profile	Volatile